Analysts say Apple's iPhone 16 market performance won't be eye-catching and the company's finances will be hurt as a result

Analyst Ming-Chi Kuo said that due to multiple problems such as unattractive upgrades and improvements of iPhone 16, Apple's iPhone shipments may drop by up to 15%. There are reports that Apple has begun to adjust iPhone shipments this year, but one analyst believes that Apple's production and shipments will decline significantly throughout the year.

Tianfeng International Securities analyst Ming-Chi Kuo published an article on Medium saying that supply chain surveys show that Apple has reduced its shipments of key semiconductor components to about 200 million pieces. This apparently equates to a 15% year-on-year decline and is the "most significant decline" among major mobile phone manufacturers in 2024.

It is said that in the first half and second half of 2024, shipments of iPhone 15 models and iPhone 16 launched later this year will decline by 10% and 15% year-on-year.

Ming-Chi Kuo believes that the iPhone "faces structural challenges that will lead to a sharp decline in shipments," "including the urgent introduction of new high-end mobile phone design models and the continued decline in shipments in the Chinese market."

Analysts estimate that usage models containing major changes will appear on iPhone 17, not iPhone 16. This includes catering to AI-driven experiences on smartphones, as well as market demand for foldable devices, which may not even be there even then.

At the same time, the decline in the Chinese market is related to the return of Huawei and the rise of foldable devices among high-end users. Apple's weekly shipments in China fell by 30% to 40% year-on-year.

The analyst also predicts that Apple will not launch new models with "significant design changes" "until 2025 at the earliest" and heavily favor artificial intelligence applications in design. Until then, he warned, this "is likely to harm Apple's iPhone shipment momentum and ecosystem growth."

Ming-Chi Kuo has predicted declining iPhone sales for five years in a row, but that prediction doesn't always happen. This appears to be the largest year-over-year decline to date.