Analyst Ming-Chi Kuo published an article on Medium on Tuesday, making extensive predictions for Apple’s Vision Pro headset. He believes that Apple Vision Pro shipments will be limited by several key suppliers, with production capacity only half of the forecast, and the next generation product will not be updated until 2027.
access:
Apple Online Store (China)
Ming-Chi Kuo said: "Based on the maximum production capacity estimates of some component suppliers, VisionPro shipments in 2024 will be at most 400,000-600,000 units. Obviously, Ming-Chi Kuo's market expectation for shipments in 2024 is 1 million units."
He also speculated that Apple may cancel the low-cost Apple Vision headset in 2025. He believes that the price of Apple Vision Pro is an unavoidable problem, which makes the shipment growth of Apple's first-generation head display "unachievable".
In addition, he does not expect VisionPro to be in mass production until the first half of 2027. This suggests that the headset may not receive a hardware update for more than three years. His biggest concern seems to be explaining to potential users why they need the product despite its "great experience."
Ming-Chi Kuo concluded: "For Vision Pro to become the next star product of the iPhone, it may take longer than the market expects."
The $3,499 Apple Vision Pro was released at WWDC in 2023. Its software is still in beta, and CEO Tim Cook said it's "on track" to ship in early 2024.