About 10% of U.S. workers hold jobs that are at greatest risk of being disrupted by rapidly developing artificial intelligence (AI), according to a new report released by the White House on Thursday.
The studies are part of the White House Council of Economic Advisers' (CEA) annual presidential economic report, which devotes an entire chapter to the issues raised by artificial intelligence technology and how policymakers should respond.
Bernstein, chairman of the White House Council of Economic Advisers, said, "The U.S. government has not paid enough attention to social media and related technologies during their development. We will not let this happen again with the development of artificial intelligence. The White House is discussing with labor unions - especially service industry unions, but also manufacturing unions, about preparing for artificial intelligence."
As with any new technology, experts believe artificial intelligence will help certain jobs and make them more productive. And some other jobs may be eliminated. The White House report includes a number of caveats and cautions that the ultimate impact of AI on workers may change as the technology and its capabilities evolve.
Currently, generative artificial intelligence (AIGC) tools have been able to complete some tasks that only humans could complete in the past, such as writing a joke, generating realistic image videos and even creating lyrics.
It is reported that White House economists analyzed the potential impact of AI technology on the U.S. job market by identifying 16 jobs that highly overlap with artificial intelligence.
The CEA report states that “workers in these occupations are most likely to be affected by artificial intelligence, either positively through complementation or negatively through substitution or displacement.”
To delve deeper into which workers are most vulnerable to replacement, the researchers broke down jobs by the difficulty of the tasks. The report points out that labor substitution is most likely to occur in jobs that are less complex and difficult.
These workers "perform jobs most likely to be transformed by artificial intelligence," the report said. The report does not identify occupations or industries that fall into this category.
"While most jobs remain a collection of tasks, only some of which can be automated, AI may allow humans to focus on other tasks, fundamentally changing their jobs without reducing labor use," the report said.
"Children may still need someone to watch them on the school bus to ensure they behave properly and make sure they get in and out safely, and AI-led automation may fundamentally change the job of a school bus driver but is unlikely to eliminate it," the report states.
The report also noted that although autopilot systems have been around for more than a century, there are still pilots on every plane.
"The wrong starting point for discussing artificial intelligence is to assume that it will replace workers' jobs on a large scale," Bernstein said. "But the history of technological evolution in the workplace has not been that way."
The White House report found that among those with no college education and only a high school degree, 14% were in jobs that had more contact with artificial intelligence and had lower job performance requirements. In contrast, only 6% of workers with a bachelor's degree fall into this high-risk group.
Likewise, women are more likely to be in jobs where the risk of AI displacement is high but where performance requirements are low, "suggesting that women may be at higher risk of being displaced," the report said.
The report found that nearly 40% of workers in the 30th percentile of income (those with income levels just above the 30th percentile) face higher AI risks and lower performance requirements. And while high-income earners may also be at higher risk of being replaced by artificial intelligence, their job requirements tend to be more complex.
The findings suggest that AI technology may bias income distribution - increasing the relative demand for highly educated workers in high-paying occupations, the report said. They also suggest that if AI displaces employment in low-wage jobs and complements high-wage jobs, it could increase total income inequality.
However, the White House report stresses that it is too early to conclude that AI will increase inequality - in part because this risk could influence government policy. Bernstein said the Biden administration is looking to take steps to reduce the risk of AI replacing workers.