The "Thousand Sails Constellation" project (also known as the G60 Starlink project), known as the domestic "Starlink", will launch its first batch of networking satellites in Taiyuan today (August 5). It is reported that,This launch will take off into orbit with the configuration of "18 satellites in one rocket". It is reported that the "Thousand Sails Constellation" plans to start construction in 2023, including a third-generation satellite system, using a full-band, multi-layer and multi-orbit constellation design. It is committed to providing domestic users with more extensive and high-quality communication services.
Judging from the macro plan of the "Thousand Sails Constellation", it is expected to realize the networking of more than 15,000 low-orbit wide-screen multimedia satellites. It is expected to complete the launch of 108 satellites this year, achieve 648 satellites to provide regional network coverage by the end of 2025, and provide global network coverage by 2027. Ultimately, by 2030, 15,000 satellites will be available to provide integrated services such as direct mobile phone connections.
The commercial spaceflight explosion period may come
The commercial aerospace sector has been active recently. According to statistics from the Science and Technology Innovation Board Daily, the stock price trends of 20 A-share commercial aerospace listed companies, nearly one-third of the companies increased by more than 10% last week. Among them, Hangxin Technology, Aerospace Hongtu, and China Satcom had the largest gains, with gains of 34.14%, 22.64%, and 17.97% respectively.
Caitong Securities' research report on August 2 pointed out that the "18-star with one arrow" technology to be performed by the "Thousand Sails Constellation" will further verify the carrying capacity of my country's rockets, help reduce satellite launch costs, and lay a solid foundation for subsequent large-scale satellite launches. The implementation of "G60 Starlink" means the further expansion of the domestic satellite Internet industry chain and further progress on the manufacturing and application sides. The development of satellite technology in mobile phone innovation, autonomous driving, disaster prevention and reduction, Internet of Things and other markets is expected to accelerate, and the industry will usher in huge development opportunities.
In fact, in addition to the G60 Starlink plan, our country also has the GW constellation of China Star Network Company and the Honghu-3 constellation of Hongqing Technology, a subsidiary of Blue Arrow Technology, which have also reached the "10,000-star constellation" level. The former is expected to launch a total of 12,992 satellites from the GW-A59 and GW-22 sub-constellations; the latter's advance information shows that a total of 10,000 satellites will be launched in 160 orbital planes. At present, the total number of satellites applied for by our country is close to 40,000.
Frequent launch plans for low-orbit communication satellites are also expected to push my country's number of space launches to a new high. Data from the "China Aerospace Science and Technology Activities Blue Book (2023)" shows that my country will carry out a total of 67 space launch missions in 2023, ranking second in the world. It is expected to carry out about 100 launch missions in 2024, which is expected to set a new record.
Southwest Securities believes that in the context of competition for space resources between countries, the localization rate of the low-orbit satellite industry is expected to remain at a high level, and the massive demand for manufacturing low-orbit satellites and commercial rockets will become a new increase in my country's domestic demand. According to calculations by Taibo Think Tank, a technology consulting organization, commercial aerospace will usher in a golden development cycle, and the market size is expected to reach 2.8 trillion yuan in 2025.
In recent years, various regions in my country have made plans to promote commercial aerospace development:
In 2023, Shanghai released the "Shanghai Action Plan to Promote Commercial Aerospace Development and Create a Space Information Industry Highland (2023-2025)." The document proposes that by 2025, driven by the leapfrog development of commercial aerospace, the integrated development of satellite communications, navigation, and remote sensing will be strengthened around satellite manufacturing, carrier launch, ground system equipment, space information applications and services, and the integration of space, space, and ground information networks will be promoted.
In April 2024, Haidian District of Beijing released the "Action Plan for Building a Commercial Aerospace Innovation Highland (2024-2028)". The "Plan" proposes that by 2028, an internationally competitive commercial aerospace innovation highland will be initially established, with the scale of the commercial aerospace industry exceeding 100 billion and the number of satellites in orbit exceeding 1,000.
On July 16, the Wuhan Municipal People's Government issued several measures to promote the breakthrough development of commercial aerospace, which included expanding the opening of applications in commercial aerospace scenarios. Release an open list of commercial aerospace scenario applications and identify a group of scenario application-friendly units. Ten commercial aerospace application demonstration projects are selected and released every year. For projects that are identified as provincial application demonstration projects and receive provincial subsidy funds, the municipal level will provide supporting support at a ratio of 1:1.
From an investment perspective, the Minsheng Securities research report pointed out that in the short term, front-end launch vehicle technology and related industrial chains are expected to be the first to benefit. At the same time, the satellite production and manufacturing links in the spacecraft field are expected to accelerate based on the acceleration of the commercial aerospace process. In the medium and long term, with the gradual improvement of technical facilities, the relevant links on the downstream application side will usher in a golden development stage.