Tianfeng Securities analyst Ming-Chi Kuo said that sales of the 15-inch MacBook Air will be 20% lower than expected due to reduced demand after the back-to-school season. Following his recent forecast for the desktop iMac, analyst Ming-Chi Kuo reports that overall MacBook shipments are declining.
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"After the back-to-school (BTS) season, demand for the new 15-inch MacBook Air has dropped significantly, and this year's shipment forecast has been reduced by about 20% or more," he wrote in his blog. MacBook shipments are expected to decline by approximately 30% year-on-year in 2023 to approximately 17 million units. "
"There are no new products in the fourth quarter of '23," he continued, "MacBook shipment momentum will be significantly lower than in previous peak seasons. The current challenges facing MacBook include declining work-from-home (WFH) demand and the potential weakening appeal of Apple Silicon and Mini LED to consumers."
Although Ming-Chi Kuo unreservedly commented on the declining consumer appeal of Apple Silicon, he also reported that "Apple expects M3 processors to boost MacBook shipments in 2024," but he was cautious about "whether this strategy is effective."
Ming-Chi Kuo said Apple needs to "clear inventory and reformulate new products and marketing strategies for 2024."
He also pointed out that the key MacBook components and their production and assembly are "significantly higher than ordinary Windows laptops (more than three times higher), which has seriously affected the revenue and profits of key MacBook suppliers."
Ming-Chi Kuo's comments that there will be no new MacBook models for the remainder of 2023 coincide with recent reports that the next-generation MacBook Pro and MacBook Air will arrive in 2024.