Recently, Momenta CEO Cao Xudong delivered a keynote speech at the 2024 Global Smart Automotive Industry Conference. Cao Xudong said: "The most critical point to achieve scalable L4 is safety. It must achieve at least 10 times the security of humans. To achieve 10 times the security of humans, the most critical thing is to solve the various millions of long-tail problems encountered."
He said: We have two insights into solving millions of long-tail problems. First, millions of problems must be data-driven. Data-driven can automatically solve most problems;
Second, how much data is needed to drive data?After dimensional analysis, at least 100 billion kilometers of data are needed.
The annual mileage of family cars and passenger cars is about 10,000 kilometers. It takes 10 million vehicles to run 100 billion kilometers for a year. This is a necessary condition for realizing large-scale L4, but it is not a sufficient condition. Sufficient conditions may require more data.
He said: Through our company’s observation of industry development trends, we have concluded a rule called Moore’s Law of smart driving.
Moore's Law of smart driving is divided into two parts, one is the software part, and the other is the hardware part. In the software part, we judge that the level of the entire smart driving industry will increase 10 times in two years, 100 times in four years, and 1,000 times in six years. It will be an exponential improvement.
According to Moore's Law of smart driving hardware, the entire BOM cost of the hardware will be halved in two years. About one or two years ago, achieving urban NOA may require two OrinX dual lidars. The BOM cost of the entire hardware is about more than 20,000. Now the entire hardware BOM cost to achieve urban NOA can reach about 10,000.
The future will be judged at the end of 2025 or the beginning of 2026. The BOM cost of realizing urban NOA can reach about 5,000 yuan, and the hardware cost will be reduced by half in two years.
There is a limit to the cost reduction of hardware. It is estimated that the hardware BOM cost may reach the limit of 4,000 to 5,000 yuan.
But there is no upper limit to software’s 10-fold growth in two years according to Moore’s Law.Accident-free autonomous driving will definitely be achieved in the future.
It is precisely because of Moore's Law of hardware and Moore's Law of software that costs are falling rapidly and experience is improving exponentially. We predict that urban NOA high-end smart driving will show explosive growth in the next five years, faster than electrification and new energy.
It took five years for the penetration rate of new energy to increase to more than 50%. We predict that high-end smart driving will be faster and the penetration rate will increase to 70%-80% in the next five years.