This year’s Double 11 was caught off guard. "Double 11 this year is too early!" Wang Yang, who just returned from his hometown after the National Day holiday, was cleaning up at home this Sunday. When clearing inventory, he suddenly saw the news that Double 11 had started. "The tissue paper and garbage bags at home were almost used up, and the original mop was broken. "Originally I just wanted to check the price, but when I opened several apps, the news that Double Eleven was about to start popped up. Taobao and JD.com both started pre-sales on October 14th, and the balance was paid on the 20th." Wang Yang described the lightning speed of Double Eleven to Xinshi Research Institute.
Source: Li Jiaqi Taobao Live Room
"I thought it was just my eyesight or that I had misunderstood it. But when I looked at Xiaohongshu, I found that not only was it true, but the Double Eleven event like Douyin or even just after the National Day had already started."
In fact, this is also a new trend emerging from this year’s Double Eleven. All major e-commerce platforms without exception have moved forward the prelude to Double Eleven. Not only are they striving for a blitzkrieg, but the timing is so early that it even catches consumers off guard. If they are not careful, they miss the earliest pre-sale stage and can only watch other hand-picking parties shouting long live welfare.
Since its birth in 2009, Double Eleven has reached its 16th year. Every year, Double Eleven serves as a reference guide for platforms on how to operate in the next stage.Different from the prosperity of the previous ten years, and also different from the pure price war atmosphere in recent years, can this year's Double Eleven become a new watershed?
Double 11 is getting earlier and earlier,Buyers and sellers are not adaptable
"It's so annoying! Who can participate when we have just gone out to play during the National Day, just returned to work, and are very busy!"
Wei Nang just returned from a trip to Beijing during the National Day holiday. He was extremely busy during his first working week back. "When I came back, I had a lot of things to deal with. When I got home, I just collapsed on the sofa. I didn't want to do anything but check my phone."
This brush brought out more worries. "I saw people competing for red envelopes in their live broadcast rooms. I didn't pay attention at first, but later I found out that many people were competing for red envelopes in their live broadcast rooms. After learning about it, I realized that this is a new way of playing this year. These red envelopes can also be used in Double Eleven." Wei Nan told the New Knowledge Research Institute.
Source: Live broadcast room of a leading anchor on Taobao
Starting around September, when you browse the live broadcast rooms of well-known Taobao anchors such as "Make a Friend", "Bee Surprise Club", "Shiitake Mushrooms", etc., you will notice a prominent prompt on the live broadcast interface: "Deposit red envelopes can be received 30 times a day, up to 100 yuan each time." It is reported that this is a new trick created by Taobao live broadcast rooms this year.Consumers need to wait for a long time to grab red envelopes in the live broadcast room to get the wool.
"What's even more outrageous is that I just noticed that Taobao's pre-sale for Double Eleven starts tomorrow." It is reported that for this year's Double Eleven, Tmall's pre-sale period starts on October 14, 10 days earlier than last year. JD.com and Pinduoduo also started on October 14.
Source: JD.com
Xiao Lu said frankly that over the years, Double Eleven has become earlier and earlier.I’m afraid that I won’t be able to buy something at a good price, and I’m also afraid that I’ll get dust after buying it., I have such a weak ear. It’s really a waste to follow the trend and plant so many things every day! "
In contrast, Wang Ran's complaint was a bit different: "Have these platforms considered workers? We spent a lot of money just after the National Day. Many of us only get paid on the 15th. If you give me the entire pre-sale on the 14th, I don't have the money to buy it!"
Source: Xiaohongshu
In addition to consumers, businesses are also dissatisfied.
He Keling saw a complaint post from a merchant on a social platform. The post seemed to speak her mind, "Should I register for this year's Double Eleven event? If I register, I will definitely lose money, and if I don't register, there will be no traffic." She doesn't know whether to participate in this first wave of activities. "If you don't register for 618, there will basically be no orders. This Double Eleven has been going on for so long, and it collapsed."
Source: Xiaohongshu
After consulting with Taobao's waiter, He Keling got the reply that this year's registration ends on October 22. In the past, if you didn't want to participate in the first wave of activities, you could also participate in the second wave of activities alone, but this year it seems that you have to sign up for both. "The front line is so long, I have to bear the loss of 50 from 300 for a month. Anyway, it is very tangled."
Under this post, many merchants had the same idea, "It takes too long, 50 off for purchases over 300, plus miscellaneous deductions. Plus the return treasure, there is no money to be made."
From consumers to merchants, they are both a little surprised and quite critical of Double Eleven being so early in advance.
Seeking change under pressure,The platform has no choice but to extend the front line
If you are surprised to see Taobao starting Double Eleven on October 14, you are too early, because there are many platforms earlier.
As early as October 8, Douyin launched a major promotion first, and even released a brand battle report on the same day, and the early access period was also October 17.
Source: Douyin
Kuaishou, another large live streaming e-commerce platform, also started quickly. Its Double 11 investment promotion started on September 19 and pre-sales started on October 10.
Xiaohongshu, which entered the market later and held high the banner of "lifestyle e-commerce", opened on October 12, while JD.com and Pinduoduo also opened at 8 pm on October 14. However, the difference between them and Taobao is that there is no pre-sale and they directly enter the purchase period.
Specifically, compared with last year, the biggest change in activity duration is on Taobao and Tmall platforms: pre-sale warm-up starts on the 14th, 10 days earlier than 2023 and 2022; JD.com 9 days earlier than 2023 and 2022; Douyin 7 days earlier; Pinduoduo 6 days earlier.
Currently, the consumption atmosphere is sluggish, coupled with the peaking of mobile Internet growth, making it difficult for retail to thrive. Even online retail, the cost of acquiring traffic during major promotions is becoming increasingly high.In fact, as early as last year’s Double Eleven, it has already reached the lowest point in recent years. According to statistics from Shangguan News, the Baidu search index for Double Eleven last year was a “freezing point” in the past 10 years. The peak search volume dropped by 60% compared with the same period in 2022. The hottest topic on Weibo is “Is it unsaleable on Double Eleven?”
Source: Shangguan News
During this year's 618 period, the platforms canceled the pre-sale system, and despite their "will to cut their hair", they did not achieve much improvement. Even though it was completely getting rid of the influence of the well-known black swan in the past few years, the industry fully rolled out low-priced subscription services. In the end, it recorded the first sales decline in 16 years, 618.Star map data shows that the total sales of the entire network during June 18, 2024 were 742.8 billion yuan, a year-on-year decline of nearly 7%.
Source: Star Chart Data
Perhaps realizing the terrible impact of price wars and vicious competition, major platforms shuddered and decided to restrain themselves. While slowly letting go of their pursuit of "absolutely low prices", they began to loosen long-criticized policies such as "refund only".
The major platforms have indeed relieved their pressure on merchants little by little, but this still cannot change the fact that they are under severe pressure. In the second quarter, Taotian's revenue decreased by 1% year-on-year, while JD's revenue increased slightly by 1.2%. Although Pinduoduo is still making great progress in its financial reports, it has been criticized by merchants off-site for factors such as "refund only", and its merchants have also been constantly protesting.
It is against this background that everyone is setting their sights on this year’s Double Eleven. It is important to follow the right rhythm. Whoever hits the right pace will be the first to reap the dividends of the first wave of sales. On the contrary, if you don’t put it in advance, you will fall behind. But if you put it too far forward, it will not only cause excessive load on the operation of your own platform, but also easily cause consumer fatigue, consume enthusiasm, and prevent consumption power from being efficiently concentrated, which is thankless.
These platform concerns are not unfounded.
In fact, in recent years, it has been a consensus in the industry that the "festival feeling" and "carnival feeling" brought by "Double 11" have gradually faded. With the rise of live broadcast e-commerce, e-commerce promotions have long been normalized. In major live broadcast rooms, "promotions every day and festivals every month" have almost become commonplace.Double Eleven does not mean the lowest price of the year——As early as last year, two things were exposed about Li Jiaqi: a 10-yuan eyebrow pencil sold for 79 yuan, and the lowest price agreement did not allow other platforms to reduce prices. This fact has long been exposed.
Source: During last year’s Double Eleven, JD.com and Li Jiaqi’s dispute over “lower price agreement”
"But after all, it is an annual promotion that attracts the attention of the entire Internet, so you can't miss it easily," merchant Yao Wei told Xinshi Research Institute.
In fact, platforms have captured this psychology. Although many merchants have complained, the majority of merchants participating will still be. Taobao alone has opened more than 6 million new stores this year alone. And consumers will also participate in more people because of the spread of time. Wu Jia, President of Taotian User Platform Division, said with confidence at the Tmall Double 11 press conference a few days ago, "This year is expected to be the Tmall Double 11 with the largest number of purchasing users in history."
In the past, when the traffic dividend was still there and there were only two or three platforms, it was okay to pay attention to accumulation and gain, but now,The cake is growing slower and slower, and there are more and more diners. If we don't stretch the front line and throw out more plates to catch the cake, the platform will be left behind at least, or kicked off the table at worst.
For various platforms, advancing the Double 11 process can not only help attract attention and increase increment, but also have more room to adjust policies in a timely manner. In the past, there may have been many concerns.But as the e-commerce battlefield has already entered the red ocean, it is better to use subsidized low prices to attract customers while people's willingness to consume has not faded.
As for consumers and businesses? When Double 11 starts earlier and earlier for all platforms, for consumers and merchants, it means that all platforms are still in place. Everyone is like this, doesn’t it give them confidence?
Note: All interviewees in this article have pseudonyms.
Text | New Knowledge Research Institute, author | Zhu Yongkang, editor | Ding Li