As more details of the Azerbaijan Airlines crash came to light, there were various theories about the cause of the crash, but there is no conclusion yet. According to CCTV News, on December 25, local time, an Azerbaijan Airlines passenger plane crashed near the city of Aktau in western Kazakhstan. Kazakhstan's Emergency Situations Ministry confirmed that day that 29 people survived and 38 people were killed in the crash. According to a report by the Kazakhstan National News Agency on the night of the 25th, the passenger plane’s flight data recorder has been found.


On December 25, 2024, near the Aktau Airport in Kazakhstan, the wreckage of the Azerbaijan Airlines Embraer 190 aircraft was scattered on the ground. Video screenshot

At present, the governments of Kazakhstan and Azerbaijan have announced the establishment of national committees to investigate the cause of the Azerbaijan Airlines passenger plane crash. Both Kazakhstan and Azerbaijan stated that the cause of the crash could not be determined for the time being.

The "Embraer 190" aircraft manufactured in Brazil in 2013 was flying from Baku, the capital of Azerbaijan, to Grozny, the capital of the Chechen Republic of Russia, when it suddenly turned around and flew to the backup airport in Aktau, the city of Kazakhstan. Due to a control system failure, the aircraft sent out a distress signal. Minutes later, the crew requested an emergency landing in Aktau, but failed to reach the runway. It rolled to the right several kilometers away from the runway, hit the ground with its wing, and exploded. The front half of the plane was completely burned, while the rear half flew dozens of meters away and was relatively intact.

The press service of Chechnya's local airport said that due to fog in Grozny, the airport did not receive the plane for landing, and the plane was subsequently planned to go to the backup airport of Khachkala. But in the end, the plane flew to Aktau. An Aktau Airport employee in charge of aircraft maintenance told the media that the plane went to Aktau because a bird entered the aircraft engine. The Russian Federal Air Transport Agency also said that the plane collided with a flock of birds during the flight, and after an emergency occurred on board, the captain decided to fly to Aktau Airport.

Some media also pointed out that another possible reason why the Grozny Airport was closed and did not accept landing aircraft was that the North Caucasus was attacked by drones that day, and Russia was conducting an air defense mission at the time. According to a CCTV News report on the 25th, Mainiailo, the Chief Executive of the Republic of North Ossetia in southern Russia, said that information from the Russian Ministry of Defense showed that Ukrainian drones carried out attacks on many places in the Russian North Caucasus Federal District that day.

Flight tracking service company Flightradar24 stated that the crashed passenger plane had experienced "strong GPS interference", which "caused the aircraft to transmit incorrect ADS-B data." ADS-B data refers to the data used by flight tracking websites to track aircraft flight information.

In addition, judging from the photos of the aircraft fuselage taken at the crash site, there are many holes in the tail of the aircraft. The cause of their formation has yet to be determined. It may be caused by debris generated after an explosion outside or inside the aircraft. Previously, the health department in the Mangistau region where the accident occurred said that a gas tank explosion occurred on the crashed plane, but did not provide details. Another surviving passenger told the media that a bird flew into the plane's engine, causing the plane's oxygen tank to explode. Some analysts believe that the hole in the tail of the plane may have been formed by an explosion after the plane landed. There were many videos taken by eyewitnesses before that confirmed the occurrence of the explosion.

CCTV reporters learned on the 25th that Russian media interviewed Rakhimov, a survivor of the crash, who was sitting at the tail of the plane. Rakhimov said that when the plane was preparing to land in Grozny, it suddenly pulled up rapidly and began to gain altitude. There was thick fog at the time, and the crew tried three times to land the plane in Grozny, but failed. Something exploded during the third landing attempt, but Rakhimov could not confirm whether the explosion occurred inside the plane. The crew then turned the plane and flew to Aktau Airport.

According to CCTV News, Kazakhstan Deputy Prime Minister Bozumbayev said on the 25th that the cause of the passenger plane crash has not yet been determined, and it is far from possible to draw a conclusion. Bozumbayev said that an interdepartmental investigation action team has been established. Criminal investigation and identification experts and civil aviation management department experts have arrived in Aktau to investigate the crash. The experts will collect all evidence within the framework of the criminal case, conduct necessary identification, and determine the cause of the crash accordingly. Bozumbayev said that investigators will analyze the flight data recorder of the crashed passenger plane, and Kazakhstan will cooperate with the manufacturer of the crashed aircraft, Embraer, to launch the investigation.

President Aliyev of Azerbaijan declared December 26 as a day of mourning. Aliyev said that the crashed passenger plane "changed its course due to bad weather", but the cause of the crash was not yet clear and it was "too early" to discuss the cause of the crash. He said that a criminal investigation has been launched into this incident and the Azerbaijani people will be informed of relevant developments regularly.