From Tesla's launch of Optimus, the first humanoid robot prototype, to the continued popularity of the AI concept this year, humanoid robots, as the interface between AI and the physical world, have become another new target for cross-domain integration after flying cars.On December 25, when Li Xiang, chairman of Li Auto, responded to whether he would build a humanoid robot, he said that the probability is definitely 100%, but the pace is not the same as now. “If we can’t even solve L4 self-driving cars, how can we solve more complex (application scenarios). The car is the simplest robot. If the car cannot realize it, other artificial intelligence robots will still be very limited.”
Although Li Xiang believes that the time is not yet ripe for the ideal to enter the field of humanoid robots, OEMs that are involved in intelligent driving and AI technology have gradually entered the field. In addition to Tesla, Chinese brands BYD, GAC, Chery Automobile, Xiaomi, Thalys, Xpeng Motors, SAIC, Changan Automobile and Dongfeng Motor are all involved in the field of humanoid robots.
"A very interesting trend has emerged in the automobile industry in the era of artificial intelligence - 'on the road' is smart cars, 'flying up' is flying cars and low-altitude industries, and 'standing up' is humanoid robots and embodied intelligence." According to Zhang Yongwei, vice chairman and secretary-general of the China Electric Vehicles Association of 100, the smart car industry is further developing into a converged smart industry.
It is generally believed in the industry that car companies’ technologies in areas such as autonomous driving, sensors, machine vision and artificial intelligence have many similarities with the development of humanoid robots, and there is also a lot of overlap in the supply chain. At the same time, automobile factories are also important scenarios for the application of humanoid robots, which can form a commercial closed loop of R&D, manufacturing, and application, and can spill over to more application scenarios, accelerating the pace of commercialization of humanoid robots.
From the current stage, car companies are mainly laying out the robot track through self-research, cooperative development, investment in start-up companies, etc. In terms of self-research, on December 8, the second-generation embodied intelligent robot independently developed by GAC Group was unveiled. "Since GAC Group started the research and development of embodied intelligent robots, it has focused on relying on the mature industrial chain of intelligent connected new energy vehicles to share R&D costs by sharing vehicle-side chips, lidar and other components, and customized and developed them to vehicle-level standards to improve performance while ensuring high-end quality." said Liu Jujiang, director of the Forward Technology Department of GAC Research Institute.
Also conducting independent research and development is Xpeng Motors. In early November, Xpeng Motors released its self-developed new AI humanoid robot, Iron, in Guangzhou. According to reports, the Iron robot has been put into practical training at Xpeng Motors' Guangzhou factory and is mainly involved in the production process of the Xpeng P7+ model.
Chery Automobile is a representative of cooperative development. In April this year, Chery Automobile teamed up with AI company Aimoga to jointly develop the humanoid robot Mornine, entering the humanoid robot track. Mornine is a humanoid robot with advanced artificial intelligence that can accurately understand human language interaction intentions and convert them into specific action strategies and language output. Different from the conventional practice of many automobile manufacturers that mainly apply robots to automobile production lines to improve production efficiency, Chery has set a new role for Mornine - store shopping guide.
SAIC has entered the field of humanoid robots by investing in robot companies. In March this year, SAIC Venture Capital participated in the A3 round of strategic financing of Zhiyuan Robot, a humanoid robot company. In addition to SAIC Venture Capital, SAIC Financial Holdings' private equity investment institutions Shangqi Capital and Hengxu Capital are also increasing their exploration of "investing early, investing in small companies, and investing in technology." Among them, Shangqi Capital participated in the A round of strategic financing of LimXDynamics, a general robot startup, in July this year, and Hengxu Capital is studying and promoting related potential targets.
As the first car company to develop humanoid robots, Tesla's humanoid robot concept was first proposed in August 2021, and the prototype made its debut in September of the following year. In March 2023, Optimus demonstrated stable gait walking and grasping actions with both hands for the first time; in December of the same year, Tesla released the Optimus 2 generation, which improved stability, flexibility, speed, lightweight and other aspects. As of December 10 this year, Tesla has updated the Optimus outdoor blind walking video, which has enhanced its application capabilities in complex environments. In the future, it will cooperate with visual solutions and optimize gait.
The reason why more and more car companies choose this track is because they value the long-term economic benefits of humanoid robots. Tesla CEO Musk has repeatedly emphasized that Tesla’s Optimus robot project will be more valuable than its automotive business and FSD. He even predicted that by 2040, the number of humanoid robots may exceed humans. "In 2025, Tesla's humanoid robot Optimus will be mass-produced at the level of 1,000 units, marking the first year of mass production of humanoid robots; in 2026, Optimus will be mass-produced and exported, and the long-term demand will reach tens of billions of units." Musk predicts.
According to the "Humanoid Robot Industry Research Report" released at the 2024 World Artificial Intelligence Conference, by 2024, China's humanoid robot market size will reach approximately 2.76 billion yuan; by 2029, the market size is expected to expand to 75 billion yuan, accounting for 32.7% of the global market; by 2035, this market size is expected to further increase to 300 billion yuan.