The recently popular asteroid 2024 YR4 has attracted a lot of attention because it may hit the earth in 2032. However, with the continued tracking and observation of astrophysicists, the current new calculation result is that the probability of this asteroid hitting the earth has been reduced to 0.004%. This probability will not pose any threat to the earth, and its Turin threat index has also been reduced simultaneously. At least in the short term, humans no longer need to consider interfering with this asteroid by launching missiles or probes.
However, although the earth is fine, 2024YR4 may still pose a threat to the moon. NASA said that there is still a 1.7% chance that 2024YR4 will hit the moon on December 22, 2032. If a collision does occur, it will have a considerable impact.
Many organisms on Earth rely on the gravity of the moon. For example, Earth's tidal activity is caused by the moon and the sun. If the moon is impacted and its orbit changes, a large number of marine life and even plants on land that rely on tidal activity will also be affected.
However, since the probability of impacting the earth can be reduced, the probability of impacting the moon will also be theoretically reduced. After all, space is extremely empty, and the probability of orbits intersecting and being in the same position at the same time is extremely low.
NASA said that although the asteroid is unlikely to fly towards the Earth again and will not pose a major threat to the Earth in the next century, NASA is still very happy to take this opportunity to test planetary defense science and notification processes.
Astrophysicists will continue to track and observe this asteroid in order to calculate a more precise orbit. If it is confirmed that it does not pose a threat to the major planets and satellites in the solar system, then this asteroid will be able to continue to travel in the solar system.