Despite severe climate change, the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) - a system of ocean currents critical to global climate - is unlikely to collapse before the end of the century, a new study suggests. This finding contrasts with previous predictions that the AMOC may collapse due to global warming.
The AMOC is known as the "giant conveyor belt" in the Atlantic Ocean. It transports warm surface water from south to north. After reaching the North Atlantic, it sinks and flows back southward, forming deep cold currents. This system plays a key role in the global distribution of heat, salt, and seawater composition. In recent years, however, the AMOC's strength has gradually weakened due to melting polar ice, changing wind patterns and changes in precipitation, raising concerns among scientists about the potential for its collapse.
To explore the future direction of the AMOC, Met Office researchers used 34 climate models to simulate two extreme climate scenarios: an increase in carbon dioxide levels to four times pre-industrial levels and a massive injection of freshwater equivalent to the melting of the Greenland ice sheet. Under these scenarios, the AMOC weakens but does not collapse. The research team pointed out that strong winds in the Southern Ocean are a key factor in maintaining the stability of the AMOC. These winds push deep seawater to rise and balance the sinking currents in the North Atlantic.
While the findings suggest AMOC collapse is unlikely before the end of the century, scientists stress that even a weakening could have harmful consequences. Therefore, reducing greenhouse gas emissions and preventing climate warming remain a top priority.