Global warming threatens global food production, with lower latitudes facing the most severe consequences, including loss of arable land and reduced crop diversity. While mid- and high-latitude regions can adapt with new crops, ensuring global food security will require both mitigation and adaptation efforts.
The latest research shows that if temperatures rise above 1.5 degrees Celsius, crop diversity will be significantly reduced, which will have a profound impact on global food security.
Global warming is already affecting people's daily lives, fueling storms, floods, wildfires and droughts around the world. As temperatures rise, up to a third of global food production could be threatened. A new study in Nature Food sheds more light on where and how climate change will affect food production.
Researchers from Aalto University analyzed the impact of rising temperatures, changing precipitation patterns and intensifying droughts on 30 major food crops around the world. Their results suggest that lower latitudes will suffer the worst consequences, with up to half of crop yields at risk as climate conditions become unsuitable. In addition, crop diversity in these areas will also decline significantly, further threatening food security.
"Loss of diversity means that the types of food crops that can be grown in some areas may be significantly reduced. This will reduce food security and make it harder for people to get enough calories and protein," said Sara Heikonen, a doctoral researcher who led the study.
Up to half of global food crop production could be affected
Climate warming will severely reduce the global arable land available for growing staple crops such as rice, corn, wheat, potatoes and soybeans, which account for more than two-thirds of global food energy intake. In addition, tropical root crops such as yams, as well as cereals and legumes that are critical to food security in low-income areas, are particularly vulnerable. "Sub-Saharan Africa is the most affected region, with nearly three-quarters of current production at risk if global warming exceeds 3 degrees Celsius," Heikkonen said.
In contrast, mid- and high-latitude regions may retain their overall productive lands, but the areas where specific crops are grown will change. Crop diversity may also increase in these areas. "For example, the cultivation of temperate fruits such as pears may become more common in more northerly areas," Heikkonen said.
Professor Matti Kummu, senior author of the study, said that even if climate conditions are favorable, other factors may hinder agricultural development in these areas. "Our research shows there is potential, but a warming climate, for example, could bring new insect pests and extreme weather events, and our models don't include those factors. So the situation isn't really that black and white."
Adaptation and mitigation options
Many low-latitude regions most threatened by climate warming are already vulnerable in many ways. They face the problem of food self-sufficiency, and their economic and institutional strength makes them less resilient than northern countries. However, Koom believes these regions can at least partially meet this challenge.
"In many low-latitude areas, especially in Africa, yields are small compared with similar areas elsewhere in the world. If fertilizers and irrigation are available, and food losses in the production and storage chain are reduced, they can achieve higher yields. However, continued global warming will add a lot of uncertainty to these estimates, and more actions, such as crop selection and novel breeding, may be needed," he said. But I always say that modeling and analyzing is the easy part, but understanding how to implement change is the hardest part. "
Policymakers in low-latitude countries should work to close these gaps, while farmers and policymakers in mid- and high-latitudes need greater flexibility. A warming climate is likely to alter the crops grown in these regions, and a range of pressures on the global food system will bring further changes. Coping with these changes requires the ability to adjust and adapt as the consequences of climate change unfold.
"If we want to secure our food systems for the future, we need to both mitigate climate change and adapt to its impacts," Heikkonen said. "Even if the biggest changes occur in equatorial regions, we will feel their effects through globalized food systems. We need to act together to address these issues."
Compiled from /scitechdaily