Experts say Japan’s pursuit of 2nm is an outdated idea and it still clings to the old mentality of “big ships and big guns”

The Japanese government recently decided to amend the law through a cabinet meeting and invest heavily in supporting the development of semiconductor startup Rapidus.In this regard, Hiroshi Inoue, a special researcher at the Japan Machinery Industry Promotion Association, pointed out that the pursuit of the most advanced 2-nanometer process itself is an "outdated idea" and criticized Japan for still adhering to the "big ship and big gun doctrine" thinking in the semiconductor field.

Inoue Hiroki believes that the biggest problem facing Rapidus is the lack of sufficient customer demand. Even if it successfully builds the most advanced production capacity base, if there is a lack of buyers, it may lead to idle production capacity and even trigger a financial crisis.

He pointed out that Rapidus' strategy is completely different from that of TSMC and Samsung Electronics. When developing advanced semiconductors, TSMC and Samsung will establish cooperative relationships with large customers such as Apple, Qualcomm, and Nvidia to ensure orders and promote technology development.

Rapidus currently does not have major customers such as smartphones or data center server processors.

In addition, with the slowdown of Moore's Law, the benefits of process shrinkage are gradually diminishing. Inoue Hiroki suggested that Japan should shift its focus to the advanced packaging field. This field is closely related to semiconductor manufacturing equipment and materials, and is also the advantage of Japanese companies.

He suggested that Rapidus should suspend its mass production plans and focus its resources on research and development instead of rushing into the extremely risky mass production stage.

In addition to Inoue Hiroki's doubts, Japanese economic commentator Koga Shigeaki also has a negative view of Rapidus's business strategy.He pointed out that the capital required for Rapidus is expected to be 5 trillion yen, but the amount of investment from private investment is only 7.3 billion yen, and there will be no subsequent increase, showing a lack of interest in the project from the private sector.

Koga believes that the government should avoid being deceived by bureaucracy and blocking the path to correct policies. He recommends that the government support existing Japanese companies or potential start-ups rather than building new companies from scratch, which can reduce capital investment and open up new possibilities.