Will the Cybertruck become a best-seller? Can it boost sales of other Tesla models?Been a pigeon for two yearsCybertruck deliveries are finally starting this week! On November 30, Tesla willA Cybertruck delivery event will be held at the Austin Gigafactory in Texas, and Tesla's official website will broadcast simultaneously. It also means investors can start looking for answers to two key questions:
Will the Cybertruck become a best-seller? Can it boost sales of other Tesla models?
Tesla stock price has skyrocketed this year117.8%, much higher than the 19.2% increase of the S&P 500 Index and the 37.2% increase of the Nasdaq Composite Index.
The first question may not be answered quickly.
Due to capacity constraints, Cybertruck may not be able to defeat its competitors soon. Due to the difficulty of manufacturing, Musk has previously said that it has the ability to produce every year.125,000 Cybertrucks,But it won’t be until at least 2025 that Cybertruck’s production capacity reaches 250,000 vehicles per year.
He also warned that at least untilIt will be 18 months before Cybertruck becomes a "significant positive cash flow contributor."
But it is worth noting that currentlyThe number of Cybertruck reservations has exceeded 1 million, which means that once the production capacity is qualitatively improved, the revenue it will bring will be very considerable.
How big is the Cyberruck's aura?
As for the second question, some analysts believe thatCyberruck may be able to use the brand's halo effect to boost Tesla's overall sales.
Applied to the automotive industry, the halo effect means that a newer, cooler model can boost sales of other older models, such as the recently launched CadillacCelestiq electric car (starting at over $300,000).
"There's a halo factor to this car," Cadillac marketing director Tony Johnson recently told the media, which "is important to the Cadillac brand because it proves that we can design a world-class ultra-luxury vehicle."
It is worth noting that Tesla has actually experienced a halo effect.
Model Y, which was launched in 2020, boosted sales of Model 3, which was launched in 2017.
When Model Y was launched, investors were worried that Model Y would cannibalize Model 3 sales, but this was not the case.
2022,Model3Sales in the United States exceedGot itIn 2020, Model Y sales also exceeded 250,000 vehicles.
in addition,In 2022, Tesla's total sales in the United States increased by 150% compared with 2020, and both Model Y and Model 3 are hot-selling products.
Globally, Wall Street expects Tesla toApproximately 476,000 vehicles will be delivered in the fourth quarter of 2023, and approximately 487,000 vehicles will be delivered in the first quarter of 2024.
The new year is coming, Cybertruck may not affect Tesla's overall sales at the end of the year, but considering Wall Street's optimistic sales forecast for Tesla in 2024, investors may be optimisticCybertruck’s influence.
Actually,When Cybertruck was first launched, the first thing investors thought of was not the halo effect, but a lucrative market segment.
As ofIn the first three quarters of 2023, Ford, General Motors, Dodge and Toyota sold approximately 1.6 million full-size pickup trucks in the United States, accounting for approximately 14% of all light vehicle sales.
Since its peers can eat a lot of meat in the field of pickup trucks, Tesla also wants to get a piece of the pie.
Are you going to look at Model 2 next?
by virtue ofModel3、ModelWith the Y and Cybertruck, Tesla has covered more car segments, but it still needs a smaller, cheaper electric car to remain invincible in the fierce competition.
What's more, American car owners don't have many cheaper electric vehicle options.
according toAccording to data from Cox Automotive, the average price of non-luxury cars in the United States is about $44,000, and the average price of pure electric vehicles is about $52,000.
Despite the higher price,Model Y is likely to become the best-selling car in the world by the end of 2023, not just the best-selling electric car but also the best-selling car.
The analysis predicts thatTesla's smaller model (calledModel 2) may be launched in 2024 or 2025. According to media reports, Tesla management has discussed this issue many times in recent months, but the timing, design and pricing have not yet been determined.
Pricing for the Cybertruck has actually yet to be determined.
FutureFundActiveETF (FFND) co-founder and Tesla shareholder Gary Black expectsThe single-motor version is priced at $49,990, the dual-motor version is priced at $59,990, and the three-motor version is priced at $79,990.
At these prices,Cybertruck three configurationsare eligible for$7500 federal tax credit.