The International Energy Agency's special report Energy and Artificial Intelligence, released today, provides the most comprehensive, data-driven global analysis to date of the growing links between energy and artificial intelligence. The report is based on new data sets and extensive consultations with policymakers, the science and technology sector, the energy industry and international experts. The report predicts that global data center power demand will more than double to approximately 945 terawatt hours (TWh) by 2030, slightly more than Japan's current total electricity consumption. Artificial intelligence will be the most important driver of this growth, with power demand for AI-optimized data centers expected to more than quadruple by 2030.
In the United States, data center power consumption is expected to account for nearly half of the growth in electricity demand between now and 2030. Driven by the application of artificial intelligence, by 2030, the U.S. economy is expected to consume more electricity to process data than to manufacture all energy-intensive products combined, including aluminum, steel, cement, and chemicals. Looking more broadly, in advanced economies, data centers are expected to drive more than 20% of electricity demand growth between now and 2030, putting the power sectors in these economies back on a growth path after years of stagnation or decline.
A variety of energy sources will be used to meet the growing power needs of data centers - although renewables and natural gas will dominate due to their cost competitiveness and availability in key markets, the report said.
Fatih Birol, Director of the International Energy Agency, said: “Artificial intelligence is one of the biggest hot topics in the energy sector today – but until now, policymakers and markets have lacked the tools to fully understand its wide-ranging impacts. Over the next five years, global demand for electricity from data centers is expected to more than double to 2 In 2030, it will consume as much electricity as all of Japan currently. The impact will be particularly significant in some countries, such as the United States, where data centers are expected to account for nearly half of the increase in electricity demand; in Japan, it will account for up to one-fifth.”
The report highlights the significant uncertainties that remain, ranging from the macroeconomic outlook to the pace of AI adoption. The report also points out issues such as how the capabilities and productivity of artificial intelligence can be improved, how quickly efficiency can be improved, and whether bottlenecks in the energy sector can be resolved.
The report notes that artificial intelligence may exacerbate some energy security pressures while also helping to solve other problems. Cyberattacks against energy utilities have tripled in the past four years and have become more sophisticated due to the emergence of artificial intelligence. At the same time, artificial intelligence is becoming a key tool in energy companies’ defense against such attacks. Another energy security concern is related to the growing demand for critical minerals used in AI data center equipment. The report provides the first estimate of data center demand for critical minerals, for which global supply is currently highly concentrated.
The report points out that although the growth in data center power demand is bound to push up emissions, this increase is not large for the entire energy industry. If artificial intelligence technology is widely used, the emission reduction effect it brings may offset this increase. Additionally, the report found that as AI becomes increasingly important in scientific discovery, it could accelerate innovation in energy technologies such as batteries and solar photovoltaics.
“With the rise of artificial intelligence, the energy industry is at the forefront of one of the most important technological revolutions of our time,” said Dr. Birol. “AI is a tool, potentially an extremely powerful one, but how we use it is up to us – our societies, governments and businesses. The IEA will continue to provide data, analysis and a forum for dialogue to help policymakers and other stakeholders lead the way forward in the context of the energy industry shaping the future of AI – and AI shaping the future of energy.”
Countries that want to benefit from the potential of artificial intelligence need to quickly accelerate new investments in power generation and grids, improve the efficiency and flexibility of data centers and strengthen dialogue between policymakers, the technology sector and the energy industry, the report said.
The report is part of the International Energy Agency’s (IEA) expanding work analyzing the deepening links between energy and artificial intelligence (AI). The report builds on the IEA’s contribution to the Global Energy and AI Conference in December 2024, the largest energy and AI conference to date, and the IEA’s AI Action Summit hosted by France and India in February this year. The IEA will also soon launch a new Energy, Artificial Intelligence and Data Center Observatory, which will collect the most comprehensive and up-to-date data on AI power demand globally and track cutting-edge AI applications in the energy sector.
In addition to the report, the IEA has released a new artificial intelligence agent to help readers interact with its findings. The AI agent is available on the report homepage and answers questions about the report content in an easy conversational manner.