The Guardian reported that the British government's plan, originally called the "Homicide Prediction Project," used algorithms to analyze information on hundreds of thousands of people, including crime victims, hoping to identify those most likely to commit serious violent crimes.
Civil liberties group Statewatch exposed the project through the Freedom of Information Act. The organization claims that the tool was developed using data from 100,000 to 500,000 people. National Watch said the group included not only people with criminal records but also victims of crime. But officials deny this, claiming the tool only uses existing data on convicted criminals.
The data includes names, dates of birth, gender, ethnicity and numbers used to identify people on police national computers. It also covers sensitive information such as mental health, addiction, suicide and vulnerability, self-harm and disability.
Sophia Lyle, a researcher at National Watch, said: "The Ministry of Justice's attempt to build this murder prediction system is the latest chilling dystopian example of a government deliberately developing so-called crime 'prediction' systems. Research has shown time and time again that algorithmic systems that 'predict' crime are inherently flawed. This latest model, which uses data from our institutionally racist police and Home Office, will reinforce and amplify the structural discrimination behind the criminal legal system."
Officials say the project is an expansion of existing risk prediction tools that are often used to predict the likelihood that inmates will reoffend as they near their release dates. They added that the project aimed to explore whether adding new data sources from police and detention facility data could improve risk assessments.
A spokesman for the Ministry of Justice said the project was for research purposes only.
Crime prediction algorithms have a long history and are often compared to Minority Report, including South Korea's "Dejaview" - an artificial intelligence system that detects and potentially prevents criminal activity by analyzing CCTV footage. It works by analyzing crime patterns and identifying signs of an impending crime.
In 2022, university researchers said they had developed an algorithm that could predict future crime a week in advance with 90% accuracy.
Additionally, there were reports in 2022 that China was researching ways to create citizen profiles through which automated systems could predict potential dissidents or criminals before they act.