After years of sluggishness, PCs are expected to bottom out next year. The Windows update cycle and the rise of AIPC will bring about the strongest replacement wave in recent years. A research report released by Canalys, a world-renowned independent analysis agency for the technology market, pointed out that,Global PC shipments are expected to recover after falling for seven consecutive quarters.
The market is expected to grow by 5% in the fourth quarter of 2023, driven by the festive season and improving macroeconomics. Looking to the future,Full-year shipments in 2024 are expected to reach 267 million units, an 8% increase from 2023. This is mainly due to the update cycle of Windows and the rise of computers with AI functions and Arm architecture.
Canalys pointed out in the report that AI will have a profound and lasting impact on the personal computer industry. Leading players such as OEMs, processor manufacturers and operating system suppliers will intensively launch new models with AI functions in 2024. These initiatives will boost replacement demand.
By 2024, total shipments of PCs with AI capabilities will capture about 19% of the market share. This includes all M-series Mac products, as well as anticipated new products in the Windows ecosystem.
Canalys predicts that AI personal computers will develop rapidly and become popular.
A November survey showed channels were optimistic about the PC industry's performance next year,47% of those surveyed expect their Windows PC shipments to grow by 10% or more next year.
The new Windows system is also another major driver for users to replace their computers.
Earlier at a Citi analyst meeting,Intel Chief Financial Officer David Zinsner revealed news about next year's Windows updates, suggesting that consumers may upgrade their PCs because of new versions of Windows.
He said: "We believe that 2024 will be a pretty good year for the PC market, especially driven by Windows system updates." "The existing Windows computer hardware is relatively old, and there may be a large number of upgrades next year. We think next year may be the beginning of this process, because of Windows as a catalyst."
According to outside analysis, the "Windows update" Zinsner refers to is most likely Windows 12.