On November 18, Xiaomi Group (1810.HK) disclosed its third quarterly report for 2025. The announcement showed that Xiaomi’s revenue for the quarter was 113.12 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 22.3%; its adjusted net profit was 11.31 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 80.9%.
In terms of business segments, Xiaomi Group's mobile phone × AIoT segment revenue in the quarter was 84.11 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 1.6%, accounting for 74.4% of total revenue; smart electric vehicles and AI and other innovative business segments revenue was 29.01 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 199.2%, accounting for 25.6% of total revenue.
Focusing on the mobile phone business, Xiaomi's smartphone business revenue in the third quarter was 46 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 3.1%. The core reason was that the smartphone ASP (average selling price) fell by 3.6% from 1,102.2 yuan per unit in the same period last year to 1,062.8 yuan. This decrease was mainly due to the decline in ASP in overseas markets, which was partially offset by the increase in ASP driven by the increase in the proportion of high-end smartphone shipments in mainland China. Mobile phone shipments increased by 0.5% to 43.3 million units from 43.1 million units in the same period last year, mainly due to increased shipments in overseas markets.
The mobile phone industry is a track that is more obviously affected by this round of memory cycles. Since 2025, the global memory market has shown continuous price increases across all categories. From upstream memory chips (DRAM, NAND) to downstream memory sticks, SSDs and other end products, prices have increased significantly, and the increase has far exceeded the average level in recent years.
In this regard, Xiaomi Group President Lu Weibing said in the earnings call that in the past, the industry would enter a cycle of memory ups and downs every few years, but this cycle is mainly caused by the sudden increase in demand for HPC (high-performance computing) driven by AI. It takes a long time, has high demand, and insufficient supply. Memory prices suddenly rose in the first and second quarters of this year, and prices surged in the third quarter. The increase is expected to be even greater in the fourth quarter.
According to Lu Weibing, such memory cycle attributes will have a greater impact on industry costs and gross profits, especially for products with relatively high storage costs such as mobile phones, tablets, and laptops. This is also a topic faced by the entire industry. Specific solutions include appropriate price increases for products and mitigation by optimizing product structure. Increasing inventory during the cycle of rising costs and reducing inventory during the cycle of falling costs are the basic strategies that most manufacturers in the industry will follow. At the same time, Lu Weibing reminded that if the retail price of mobile phones rises, then the mobile phone market will definitely decline, but the specific proportion is currently difficult to quantify.
Lu Weibing pointed out that the global mobile phone industry has become somewhat stable, but the large price increase and long cycle of memory will trigger periodic fluctuations in the industry. The core reason is that different manufacturers have different abilities to absorb costs. Among them, manufacturers with lower ASP will be more severely affected.
As for the domestic market, Lu Weibing believes that the domestic mobile phone market structure has not yet been finalized, and the gap between manufacturers has not widened. This round of memory price increases will intensify competition in the industry. The core test is the financial strength of manufacturers and their say in the supply chain. Suppliers will also adjust their cooperation priorities. From a market perspective, early inventory will be digested in the third quarter, and market feedback on high-priced memory inventory will be faced in the fourth quarter. It is expected that this cycle will have a greater impact on the domestic mobile phone market than the global market.