Bitcoin had a weak start to the week. It once fell below $90,000 in Asian trading on Monday, which was considered by the market to indicate the beginning of a bear market. However, analysts at Standard Chartered Bank gave a different view. Geoffrey Kendrick, head of digital asset research at Standard Chartered Bank, said that the recent adjustment seems to be over. Although the decline in Bitcoin price this time is faster and larger, it is consistent with the third major selling wave in the current cycle.
He also added that many market indicators have been reset to extreme levels. For example, the net asset value multiple (PB) of digital asset investment company Strategy, which is the ratio of the company’s market value to the price of its Bitcoin holdings, has fallen to 1.0, which means that the price of Bitcoin may have bottomed out.
Kendrick emphasized that this is enough to indicate that the selling wave is over, and his basic expectation is that there will be a rebound before the end of the year. He also reiterated his view that this may be the last time Bitcoin prices fall below $100,000.
Bitcoin fell below $100,000 on Friday and fell to $89,500 this week. Currently, the coin is trading around $92,000, having almost completely wiped out all gains made this year.
Standard Chartered Bank once estimated that if the price of Bitcoin falls below US$90,000, more than half of the Bitcoin positions of listed companies that buy and hold Bitcoin will fall into a loss-making state. Listed companies hold a combined 4% of Bitcoin in circulation and 3.1% of Ethereum.
Nansen research analyst Nicolai Sondergaard said that the cryptocurrency market depth has dropped by about 30% since the record-breaking "liquidation" event on October 10, and investors are highly sensitive to even modest sell-offs.
But he added that while Bitcoin prices could fall to the mid-$80,000 range based on options data, maintaining current levels or rebounding seemed more likely. He pointed out that with liquidity so thin, the amount of funds required to push the market in any direction will be much smaller, and if leverage is added, the volatility will become greater.
Willem Schroé, CEO of Botanix Labs, a second-tier Bitcoin network service provider, also said that although Bitcoin has fallen sharply recently, it has played an important role: clearing leveraged positions and preparing for the next round of rise in the token.
He emphasized that Bitcoin's brief drop below $90,000 will not change the overall situation, and that there will be a 20% to 30% correction in every cycle to clear leverage. Historically, these pullbacks are often the basis for the next bull market.