On December 2, Eastern Time, the International Data Corporation (IDC) released the latest "Global Quarterly Mobile Phone Tracking Report." According to the report, Apple mobile phone shipments in the fourth quarter of this year exceeded expectations, but in 2026, global smartphone shipments will decline by 0.9% due to memory component shortages and product cycle adjustments. Next year, the global average selling price of smartphones will rise to US$465 (approximately RMB 3,287.96), and the market value will reach a record high of US$579 billion.
Apple shipments in China exceed expectations
IDC predicts that global smartphone shipments are expected to grow by 1.5% to 1.25 billion units in 2025, driven by Apple's strong sales performance, rapid growth in major emerging markets and the rebound of the Chinese market.
According to its forecast, Apple is expected to hit a new performance high in 2025, with its shipments expected to grow 6.1% to 247 million units, thanks to strong demand for its iPhone 17 series.
In China, Apple's largest market, consumer demand for iPhone 17 has surged, causing Apple's market share in China to exceed 20% in October and November. As a result, IDC raised Apple's fourth-quarter year-on-year growth forecast in China from 9% to 17%.
IDC previously expected Apple's shipments in the Chinese market to decline by 1% this year, but now it has changed to predicting a positive growth of 3%.
Nabila Popal, senior research director for IDC's Worldwide Quarterly Mobile Phone Tracker, said:
"This is a stunning reversal. This success story is also seen in every other region, including the United States and Western Europe where growth had previously slowed. Not only will Apple's shipments hit a record this year, but sales will also hit a new high, expected to exceed $261 billion and achieve 7.2% year-over-year growth in 2025."
Shipments will decline next year
However, due to factors such as parts shortages and product cycle adjustments,IDC's growth forecast for global smartphone shipments in 2026 has been reduced from a year-on-year increase of 1.2% to a year-on-year decrease of 0.9%.
IDC said that the ongoing global memory shortage is expected to limit supply and push up prices, which will have the most serious impact on low-end and mid-range Android devices because their consumers are more price-sensitive.
At the same time, Apple's delay in the release of its next-generation entry-level iPhone model (from fall 2026 to early 2027) will also cause iOS phone shipments to decline by more than 4%.
As mobile phone shipments decline, IDC expects the average selling price of smartphones to rise to $465 next year, bringing the total market value to a record $578.9 billion.
"While next year will be a challenging time for the industry, IDC believes the market still has the potential to achieve record average selling prices," said Anthony Scarsella, IDC research director.
As memory stocks become scarcer and more expensive, suppliers are expected to adjust their product mix toward higher-margin products to offset rising raw material costs, while some will have to raise prices outright.