A few hours ago, SpaceX, which has attracted much attention from the capital market recently, rarely disclosed an in-orbit satellite accident. According to the official account of “Starlink”,On Wednesday, Starlink satellite No. 35956 suffered an abnormal accident and lost contact 418 kilometers above the ground. The anomaly caused the satellite's propellant tank to leak, causing it to rapidly drop 4 kilometers in altitude and release a small amount of debris.
This description usually means that the satellite has experienced some kind of internal explosion.
The company disclosed that the overall structure of the satellite is basically intact and is currently in a tumbling state. It will re-enter the Earth's atmosphere and completely ablate and disintegrate within a few weeks. SpaceX is currently coordinating with the U.S. Space Force and NASA to monitor these targets.
Although the cause of the satellite accident was not explained clearly, Starlink disclosed that it has begun to deploy software updates to active satellites to enhance protection against such incidents.
Space tracking company LeoLabs said it had detected "dozens" of debris that may have been caused by the accident, and expected that more debris may be identified as it continues to track the incident. LeoLabs added that the rapid loss of the satellite's altitude likely indicates that the accident was caused by an internal problem rather than a collision with another satellite or space debris.
As satellite Internet becomes the focus of private investment and capital markets, the operational risks of space orbit business are also attracting industry attention.
For example, SpaceX alone currently has more than 9,300 satellites in orbit, and this number is still growing rapidly. This year alone, SpaceX has carried out 122 Starlink satellite launch missions, putting more than 3,000 satellites into orbit.
As a company milestone, SpaceX achieved the milestone of launching 10,000 "Starlink" satellites at the end of October this year. The expected life of these satellites is about 5 years. When they exit operations, they need to actively maneuver to lower their orbits and enter the atmosphere to burn up.
A study published in Acta Astronautica in October this year showed that there were approximately 13,700 objects (including satellites and space junk) orbiting the Earth in low Earth orbit (below 2,000 kilometers) in 2019, and this number had risen to 24,185 by the beginning of 2025. According to industry forecasts, by the end of this decade, the number of satellites operating in low Earth orbit alone will reach approximately 70,000.
This also means that at some altitudes with high deployment density, a large number of satellites will have to perform frequent maneuvers to avoid collisions. According to a report submitted by SpaceX to U.S. regulators, for example, in the first six months of this year, "Starlink" satellites performed 145,000 collision avoidance maneuvers, which is equivalent to four maneuvers per satellite per month.
New research also found that many satellites at some altitudes perform more than 10 evasive maneuvers per month.
Frequent maneuvers of satellites in orbit will also increase the risk of subsequent collisions with other aircraft, because the satellite's trajectory will change due to orbit changes, and the collision prediction algorithm may not be able to adjust immediately. The more satellites in orbit, the higher the risk of a failed maneuver.
"While most of the orbit has not yet reached saturation, some areas have," said study co-author Maya Harris, a research associate at the Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT). "The two most affected areas are between 400 and 600 kilometers, where there are a lot of satellites in orbit, and between 700 and 800 kilometers, where there is a lot of space debris."
