Musk published a long post on social media on Sunday evening local time, saying that SpaceX's development direction has shifted from Mars colonization to a permanent base on the moon: "SpaceX has changed its focus. The goal is to build a self-sustaining city on the moon. It may take less than ten years to achieve this goal, but it will take more than twenty years for a Mars base."
Critics point out that colonizing Mars is unrealistic and that what Musk said can only be regarded as a marketing stunt and is not worthy of being taken seriously. However, an article by Ars Technica pointed out that the reason why Musk founded SpaceX was just to settle on Mars. He has this and only this goal. In his youth, Musk regarded himself as Hari Seldon. If he wanted to spread the fire of human civilization throughout the universe, Mars was the most suitable place to start.
This starting point now becomes the moon.
As a fan of Heinlein, Musk regarded "Hard Moon" as his classic. The novel describes how the lunar colonists changed society by manipulating information, how they used technological means to overthrow the lunar colonial government, and used lunar electromagnetic guns to show force to the earth, thus forcing the Earth Federation to grant the lunar colony independent status.
No one knows when Musk replaced his beloved Mars with the moon, which he had declared a year earlier to be a distraction. Perhaps Bezos' Blue Origin manned transportation system poses a substantial threat to SpaceX, making Musk realize that he must achieve space settlement before his opponents, and the moon base is the most realistic option.
The moon can provide oxygen and silicon, and electromagnetic catapults can be used to launch parts into space in a vacuum environment. Space data centers and solar power stations can be built, and even O'Neill cylinders (space settlements that can provide artificial gravity). If the parts are replaced with projectiles, it will be a powerful space weapon. Musk may mention this when seeking reimbursement from the US government.
Compared with Blue Origin’s Blue Moon Mark 1.5 system, SpaceX’s starship has a near-Earth carrying capacity of at least 100 tons. If colonizing Mars is just a gimmick, the lunar base is a more realistic consideration, although it is not like the starship that Musk said will return once every ten days and can be built soon.
