As the Spring Festival Gala approaches, the red envelope war between Internet giants is about to usher in its highlight moment. This AI red envelope group composed of Alibaba Qianwen, Tencent Yuanbao, ByteDance Doubao and Baidu Wenxin will compete with traffic platforms such as JD.com, Douyin, and Kuaishou.

According to statistics from the "BUG" column, the total amount of official red envelopes currently "participating in the war" has exceeded 8 billion yuan, and the maximum amount of a single red envelope is generally 10,000 yuan. Although ByteDance's Doubao, Alipay and Hongguo Short Play platforms have not announced clear amounts, if all valuable gifts and other items are included, the cumulative investment in this year's red envelope welfare war may reach 10 billion yuan.

However, some experts have poured cold water on it, believing that the 7-day retention rate of users who are purely driven by red envelopes is generally lower than 20%, and the 30-day retention rate may even fall below 5%. Red envelopes can only answer the question of "why users use it", but cannot answer "why they continue to use it."


The maximum single red envelope is around 10,000 yuan

On January 25, Tencent issued the "Notice on Distributing 1 Billion Yuan in Cash during the Spring Festival", marking the first shot in the Spring Festival red envelope war for the Year of the Horse. It announced that the Spring Festival event will be launched on February 1. Users can receive 1 billion yuan in cash red envelopes on the Yuanbao App, with the maximum amount of a single red envelope being up to 10,000 yuan.

With the sound of this "gunshot", Baidu, Alibaba, etc. also quickly followed suit. On the same day, Baidu announced the launch of the "500 million yuan red envelope plan": from January 26 to March 12, users who use "Wenxin Assistant" in Baidu App will have the opportunity to grab cash red envelopes totaling 500 million yuan. On February 2, Alibaba Qianwen announced a 3 billion yuan "Spring Festival Treat Plan". Starting from February 6, users only need to update the Qianwen App to the latest version to get a 25-yuan free card. They can order milk tea and coffee, movie tickets, air tickets, hotels, attraction tickets, etc. through Qianwen, and participate in free treat and other preferential activities.

As of February 12, JD.com also announced that it will join the Spring Festival red envelope war. It will launch the "Dark Moon and High Wind" super grand ceremony at 8 pm on New Year's Eve on February 16, investing 3 billion yuan in red envelopes and physical prizes to further ignite the enthusiasm of the Spring Festival consumer market.

According to incomplete statistics from the "BUG" column, major Internet companies and mainstream platforms such as Tencent, Alibaba, Baidu, JD.com, Douyin, and Kuaishou have entered the Spring Festival red envelope war this year. The total amount of red envelopes invested has exceeded 8 billion yuan, and the maximum amount of a single red envelope is generally 10,000 yuan. According to calculations by relevant agencies, if the amounts not clearly announced by other platforms such as ByteDance’s Doubao, Alipay and Hongguo Skits are added, the cumulative investment in the red envelope war this year may reach 10 billion yuan.

Public information shows that during the Spring Festival of the Year of the Snake in 2025, the only companies that publicly disclosed the amount of red envelopes were Alibaba with 2.5 billion yuan and Douyin with 200 million yuan. Very few other Internet companies publicly disclosed the amount of red envelopes. Prior to this, only JD.com disclosed an exclusive interactive red envelope event for the Spring Festival Gala worth up to 3 billion yuan in 2024, and other companies disclosed very little...

In contrast, in recent years, as the consumer Internet market has gradually stabilized, this trend has caused the Spring Festival "red envelope war" among major Internet companies to gradually subside. However, this year, the war has become fierce again. Behind this, the dispute between "traffic entrance" and "AI ticket" brought about by the new round of generative AI development has become the core reason why Internet companies are constantly competing. This changing trend can be seen from the fact that many major companies such as Bytedance, Alibaba, Tencent and Baidu in this year’s red envelope war regard AI applications such as Doubao, Qianwen, Yuanbao and Wenxin as their main bases for distributing red envelopes. Only a few companies such as JD.com and Kuaishou stick to the Internet position.

Who is the biggest winner?

Of course, behind spreading money to attract traffic, major Internet manufacturers also have different methods and strategies for spreading money. And this also represents each company’s AI judgment and long-term planning.

As the player with the most "ammunition" in this year's red envelope war, Alibaba's 3 billion yuan red envelope issued through Qianwen is more precisely directed to the "eating, drinking and having fun" scenes within its ecosystem. It aims to deeply bind users' daily consumption behavior with Qianwen, and build an ecological moat for Alibaba's existing business territory by letting AI "do practical things".

As a social-based company, Tencent has spent 1 billion yuan to guide users to use and experience Yuanbao App chat conversations and AI creation. At the same time, the company's recently launched "Yuanbao Pai" function has also become a major front for red envelope distribution in this red envelope war.

However, compared with Alibaba, which uses red envelopes more for the clear purpose of "free payment" for order payment within the ecosystem, Tencent's red envelope distribution is within the AI-native app Yuanbao, but the method still remains at the level of traffic drainage and user experience, and the style lacks much innovation, which may not be conducive to user retention after the war subsides.

As a player who also spent 500 million yuan on the use and experience rewards of Wenxin Assistant in Baidu App, although Baidu spent less money on the red envelope war than other companies, the idea is relatively clear - it is mainly used for the AI ​​function experience within Baidu App, a traffic platform in the Internet era. While attracting traffic to Baidu App, it is also refreshing users' understanding of Baidu App through AI capabilities.

As a high-profile player among Internet giants who has entered the "red envelope war" but has not announced the specific amount of red envelopes, ByteDance has not only become the exclusive AI cloud partner of its Volcano Engine for the 2026 China Central Radio and Television Station Spring Festival Gala, but its smart assistant Doubao will also launch a variety of interactive gameplay to interact with users across the country with the help of the Spring Festival Gala, a major traffic platform.

Some outside analysts believe that Doubao has a considerable user base and may become the biggest winner in this year’s red envelope war by cooperating with the Spring Festival Gala again.

In contrast, although JD.com, Alipay, Douyin, Kuaishou, etc. also more or less mention AI elements in the red envelope distribution process, their more purpose is still to attract traffic and retain users of their own Internet products.

Expert: Relying solely on red envelopes, the 30-day retention rate may fall below 5%

In 2015, WeChat and CCTV Spring Festival Gala reached an interactive red envelope cooperation, and launched the WeChat "Shake" event to grab 500 million yuan in cash red envelopes. On New Year's Eve in 2015, the total number of red envelopes sent and received increased by more than 60 times year-on-year. In the following three months, WeChat Pay added 200 million bank cards, completely overturning the industry structure of China's payment market.

After this, a large number of Internet companies did not hesitate to spend a lot of money to squeeze into the Spring Festival Gala and even the Spring Festival "red envelope war". As the new round of AI technology triggers the battle for "AI entrance", major Internet giants hope to recreate the myth of WeChat red envelopes 11 years ago, so as to get the "ticket" in the AI ​​era. This feeling is understandable, but who can really have the last laugh?

According to the latest disclosure of Alibaba’s Qianwen App, six days after the “Spring Festival 3 billion free orders” was launched, Qianwen has helped users place 120 million orders, and users have said “Qianwen help me” 4.1 billion times. According to Tencent's official announcement, since the launch of the Yuanbao App's Spring Festival main venue on February 1, the usage rate of Yuanbao's AI picture-generating function has soared 30 times, and the time users spend using Yuanbao in a single day has increased by more than 80%.

Behind the periodic surge in user data and usage, when the hormonal secretion caused by the "red envelope" subsidy subsides, it is really the inherent competitiveness of the product that is the key to long-term user retention.

Guo Tao, an angel investor and senior artificial intelligence expert, pointed out in an interview with the media that the 7-day retention rate of users purely driven by red envelopes is generally less than 20%, and the 30-day retention rate may even fall below 5%. Red envelopes can only answer the question of "why users use it", but cannot answer "why they continue to use it".

Hu Yanping, a distinguished professor at Shanghai University of Finance and Economics, bluntly said that the red envelope war gameplay in the mobile Internet era may not be as effective as expected in the AI ​​era. "During the Spring Festival, all major manufacturers will rush to advertise. The effects will cancel each other out, and objectively it will also cause a decline in marketing."

Perhaps, for major Internet companies, it is better to invest more funds in exploring user needs and building product technology and capabilities than blind red envelope wars. Take Seedance 2.0, which has attracted much attention recently, as an example. As a product that relies on technology and product capabilities, Seedance 2.0 has not only been highly recognized by professionals such as Game Science CEO Feng Ji and famous film director Jia Zhangke, but has also attracted the love of a large number of netizens for its extremely low cost - "no red envelopes".

When the noise caused by "red envelopes" and marketing subsides, what really makes users stay depends more on product design that directly faces user needs and strong technical strength.