When OpenAI was raised to US$830 billion by the private equity market, a sharp question emerged: Why did Google only get less than half of its revenue valuation multiple in the secondary market in the same AI field?
On Thursday, the Nasdaq fell 0.4%, as selling pressure on technology stocks continued. This may seem like an ordinary day in February 2026, but a fierce sense of fragmentation is surging deep in the market: Investors' anxiety about AI subverting existing giants is lingering, continuing to suppress the stock prices of leading companies such as Google; at the same time, unlisted AI leaders such as OpenAI are financing at valuations that continue to refresh perceptions.
Technology media The Information analyst Martin Peers analyzed that if investors recognize OpenAI$830 billionvaluation, then logically speaking, this should be good for Google.
According to S&P Global Market Intelligence, OpenAI, the creator of ChatGPT, is valued at $830 billion.14 times projected revenue in 2027. By comparison, Google is currently trading at just its6.7 times projected revenue in 2027
From the perspective of multiple arithmetic,This means that if measured using the same "2027 revenue multiple", Google's corresponding valuation multiple needs to be close to the current approximately 2.1 times to align.(14/6.7≈2.1). It’s important to note that this is just an analogy to a “pricing scale.”
Although Google has outperformed other technology giants recently, its stock price is still down year-to-date.
The logic behind the market's bullish view on OpenAI lies in its "high growth premium" - as a commercial entity still under construction, its revenue is expected to grow explosively in the next few years. This is indeed a reasonable point of view, but investors seem to be ignoring two key facts:
Profitability Gap:OpenAI is currently suffering serious losses and is expected to continue to burn money in the next few years. Whether it can ultimately make a profit is still unknown.
Moat comparison:Google has almost all the technical capabilities that OpenAI has in the field of AI (except for the constant management grabs), and Google has an extremely mature money-printing machine business that OpenAI does not have.
As analyst Martin Peers said:“Who would you rather bet on?”
Forgotten giant bonus?
In the rush of investors to flee technology stocks, an obvious trend has been overlooked: some giants will become richer and more powerful as a result of the AI transformation. In Peers' view, Google clearly falls into this category.
"Some companies will become stronger and richer after the AI transformation. Google will obviously be among such companies."
In addition, Microsoft, which holds a 27% stake in OpenAI, and cloud service overlord Amazon also have the potential to become winners.
While the stock performance of both companies over the past year has given investors pause, the current valuation gap may be an opportunity to think independently.
For the market, the core of Peers is not to give a single answer to "How much is Google worth?" but to remind the two main lines of the current valuation system: one is the high-multiple "growth bet" represented by OpenAI, and the other is "cash flow and deterministic discount" represented by Google. How to rebalance the two will depend on how quickly the market reprices the AI commercialization path and competitive landscape.