In the context of global geopolitical tensions continuing to rise and the market paying close attention to the spillover effects of the situation in the Middle East, the International Monetary Fund (IMF) released a series of important signals during the 2026 Spring Meeting. On April 15, 2026, International Monetary Fund (IMF) President Georgieva stated at a press conference that the Fund has been paying close attention to the latest developments in the situation in the Middle East. The situation in the Middle East has disrupted supply chains, pushed up prices, and caused huge losses to economies around the world.
"I sincerely hope that the current ceasefire will lead to lasting peace. The impact of the conflict on the global economy is already huge. Even if the conflict is temporary, widespread infrastructure damage and supply chain disruptions are driving up prices and slowing global economic growth from 3.4% last year to 3.1% in 2026. But if the conflict persists and oil prices remain high for a long time, we must be prepared for tough times."
Georgieva emphasized that among the different scenarios deduced by the World Economic Outlook, in the most unfavorable case, economic growth may drop to 2%. "Moreover, the impact is global: all countries are affected by rising energy prices."
She also said that the negative impact is extremely asymmetric, with the biggest burden falling on energy importing countries, which have limited policy space. In many cases, these countries are low-income or fragile economies.
She emphasized that in the short term, the top priority for governments to respond to supply shocks is still to maintain macroeconomic and financial stability. Policy responses may vary across countries, with monetary authorities weighing whether to maintain the status quo or take action based on actual circumstances. Within the broader response, fiscal policy is critical, as limited fiscal space limits the government's ability to respond.
“We have warned many times before that public debt is constraining fiscal space. I would like to emphasize that what is different in this crisis is that the cumulative effect of shocks has pushed debt to dangerously high levels. Global public debt is expected to exceed 100% of GDP in 2029, reaching the highest level since the Second World War. Therefore, to maintain the credibility of fiscal policy, policymakers need to ensure fiscal sustainability and protect those hardest hit. The good news is that many countries have so far avoided untargeted tax cuts, energy subsidies and price controls. The less good news is that we are seeing some countries implementing untargeted measures, export controls or widespread tax cuts. While the intentions behind these measures may be good, such untargeted actions will only prolong the pain of high prices," Georgieva warned.
Georgieva also said that the Fund continues to play the role of a "firefighter for member states" and is committed to helping deal with the current complex situation. The Fund expects near-term needs for financial support from the International Monetary Fund (IMF) to be between $20 billion and $50 billion, including expansion of existing programs and potential demand for new programs in at least a dozen countries, some of them in sub-Saharan Africa.
“We are coordinating closely with the World Bank, the International Energy Agency and other partners, including regional partners, to maximize our joint response capabilities. Even as we increase our support, we are constantly adapting our toolbox. We are conducting very important reviews, including the project design and conditionality review, the comprehensive supervisory review and the Financial Sector Assessment Program (FSAP) review, to further refine the policy advice we provide to member countries.”