The latest report from market research firm Counterpoint shows that global PC shipments increased by 3.2% year-on-year in the first quarter of 2026, reaching 63.3 million units. However, behind this round of "growth" is a wave of advance stocking driven by the skyrocketing costs of memory and SSD, rather than a natural recovery in demand.
The report pointed out that global PC manufacturers purchased memory and SSD on a large scale in Q1 to lock in the cost of key components before terminal prices fully rise, and to cope with the rigid replacement demand caused by the end of Windows 10 support. Leading brands such as Lenovo, Dell, Apple, and Asus all achieved shipment growth and further increased their market share. Asus and Apple experienced the most significant growth, reaching 20% and 11% respectively; Lenovo and Dell recorded year-on-year growth of 9% and 8% respectively. In comparison, HP's shipments fell 5% year-over-year, and other small and medium-sized brands combined fell 7%.
At the specific manufacturer level, Lenovo continues to maintain the first place in global PC share. Q1 shipments increased by 9% year-on-year to 16.5 million units, with a market share of approximately 26%, setting a new high in the first quarter of the year. Although HP has declined, it still maintains its leading position in the "second tier" ahead of the third manufacturer; Dell, driven by replacements in the commercial market, achieved 8% year-on-year growth. As for Apple, thanks to the launch of the new MacBook in March, its Q1 shipments increased by 11% year-on-year to 6.7 million units. Counterpoint believes that with the full increase of new models, Apple’s growth momentum in the PC market will continue in the next quarter. Asus, relying on strong demand for consumer notebooks, recorded a year-on-year growth of 20%, with shipments reaching 4.8 million units, making it one of the most outstanding brands this quarter.
The core variable supporting this round of concentrated stocking is the sharp rise in memory prices. Data from Counterpoint shows that the price of entry-level 8GB DDR4 memory soared 110% quarter-on-quarter in Q1, and the price of 1TB entry-level SSD without cache (no DRAM) soared 147%, and the price of high-end products increased even more. Research institutions predict that DRAM prices may still rise by another 60% and SSD prices by about 50% in the next few months. The specific range will depend on different types and specifications of products. In the context of continued expansion of investment in AI infrastructure, the throughput requirements of servers and data centers for key components such as DRAM and NAND continue to push up the overall supply chain cost. Other core PC components such as CPUs are also expected to be affected.
Microsoft's promotion of Windows 11 and Copilot+ ecosystem has also further stimulated the hardware update rhythm of PC manufacturers. In order to meet the new requirements of AI functions for computing power, memory and storage bandwidth, chip suppliers and OEMs have simultaneously launched a number of new models for "AI PCs". This has provided support for shipment data in the short term, but it has also squeezed the living space of traditional "cost-effective" models in a high-cost environment. The report pointed out that under the premise that memory and SSD prices do not fall, manufacturers are forced to tilt towards mid-to-high-end product structures in order to maintain profit margins, which will test their supply chain management capabilities and the speed of product portfolio adjustment.
Counterpoint's Memory Price Tracker and Forecast market report further warns that PC memory prices will nearly double in the first quarter of 2026 from the previous quarter, and that this upward trend will continue in the second quarter, albeit at a slightly slower pace. The continuously rising costs will eventually be transmitted to the end market through the price of the whole machine, which will have a "significant negative impact" on the overall growth of the PC market in 2026. The report predicts that brand-name complete machines still have the opportunity to maintain moderate growth relying on large-scale procurement and supply chain bargaining power, but the DIY assembly market has shown obvious signs of cooling.
On the premise that memory prices "cannot see any fallback scenario" in the short term, Counterpoint believes that from the second half of 2026 to early 2027, there is a risk that the entire PC market will re-enter the downward range. As the mainstream price range continues to be pushed up, a large number of highly price-sensitive users may be forced to postpone or give up upgrading, and the game among PC manufacturers around supply security, product positioning and pricing strategies will further intensify.