SK Hynix is ​​the only memory manufacturer to increase production this year. Its Cheongju factory began mass production of HBM (high bandwidth memory) in February this year. Other manufacturers are either waiting and watching, or are still pouring factories or debugging equipment, and production capacity will not be available until the end of 2027 or even 2028.

Three companies, Samsung, SK Hynix and Micron, account for about 90% of the global DRAM market. They are also the only semiconductor manufacturers that can produce HBM chips.

These companies have prioritized the development of HBM, which has occupied DRAM production capacity, causing the memory shortage to intensify since the fourth quarter of last year. Since the beginning of the year, memory prices have increased by 90% compared with the previous quarter. It is expected that by the middle of this year, the proportion of memory purchase costs in mobile phone manufacturing costs will rise from 20% to 40%. As a result, the smartphone market will shrink by 13%. The shortage of memory will also affect the automotive industry.

Research institutions estimate that to solve the memory supply shortage, the semiconductor industry will need to increase production by 12% by 2027, but the planned new production capacity is currently only 7.5% - the production increase plan includes:

SK hynix’s Yongin factory cluster. The company is stepping up construction and is expected to open its first clean room in February 2027, three months ahead of schedule. Hynix is ​​the most active manufacturer in increasing production and deserves praise.

(This is a rendering, the actual situation is as shown below)

Micron’s new factories in Idaho and Singapore will not be put into production until the second half of next year, and water from afar cannot quench the thirst of the near:

Samsung Electronics' Pyeongtaek fourth factory is expected to be completed within this year, but mass production will take until 2027. Moreover, this factory also produces logic chips, which will affect DRAM production capacity. Pyeongtaek's fifth factory is still under civil construction, mainly producing HBM, and will be mass-produced in 28 years at the earliest.

Since the new production capacity will not be realized until the second half of next year, the increase in DRAM production capacity can only meet 60% of demand. The supply crisis will last for 27 years. Hynix even believes that the shortage will continue until 2030. The monster like decorative strips will be active for a long time...

The bursting of the IT bubble after the epidemic caused losses to many semiconductor manufacturers. Among them, Kioxia recorded the worst losses in history, and Micron and Hynix also suffered net losses. These manufacturers are still feeling lingering fears. Kioxia, which was hardest hit by the bursting of the bubble, is hesitating whether to build a third production facility. "We will make rational investments based on market growth conditions," said Kioxia's new president Yuo Ohta.