According to reports, affected by the geopolitical situation in the Middle East, international crude oil prices have fluctuated significantly, which is being transmitted to the beverage industry along the industrial chain, resulting in a significant increase in the cost of bottled beverages, and daily beverages are facing price increases.Since 2026, the price of domestic water bottle-grade polyester bottle flakes has increased by more than 40%. Since it accounts for about 80% of the cost of beverage bottles, it directly drives the overall production cost of beverage bottles to rise by nearly 30%. The international beverage giant PepsiCo has taken the lead in releasing price increase signals.
PepsiCo clearly warned at the investor communication meeting that fluctuations in crude oil prices continue to push up costs throughout the entire chain, including production and logistics. The company will respond by optimizing the supply chain, improving operational efficiency, and adjusting the price structure. The industry generally believes that there is a high probability of subsequent price increases.
At present, in domestic supermarkets, convenience stores and other terminal markets, prices of bottled drinking water, carbonated drinks, tea drinks and other mainstream categories remain stable, and promotion activities are carried out normally. No brand has issued a formal price increase notice.
This cost increase stems from the complete transmission chain from crude oil to packaging: PET bottle flakes are the core raw material for beverage bottles, and their upstream PTA and ethylene glycol are both based on crude oil. The rise in oil prices directly drives up the cost of packaging materials.
Data show that in March, the transaction volume and transaction value of chemical products such as bottle flakes and PTA increased significantly year-on-year, reflecting that the price increase trend in the raw material market has been predicted by the market in advance.
Domestic beverage companies have chosen not to raise prices for the time being, mainly to maintain market share.
Competition in the beverage industry is fierce at present, and top brands have concentrated price bands. Being the first to raise prices can easily lead to the loss of customers.
Some companies have absorbed the pressure by locking in annual PET purchases and reducing internal costs and increasing efficiency. Packaging material companies have also chosen to shoulder part of the rising cost pressure themselves amid fierce competition.
Packaging costs are the core expenditure of beverage companies. For example, Dongpeng beverage packaging material procurement accounts for nearly 45%, and Nongfu Spring's gross profit margin is also highly correlated with PET prices.
In the short term, domestic beverage brand prices are expected to remain stable, but if the price of polyester bottle flakes remains high for a long time and corporate cost pressures continue to accumulate, the beverage market may usher in collective price adjustments.
There is still great uncertainty as to whether the price bottom line of 3 yuan affordable drinks can be maintained.
