Affected by the relevant ruling of the U.S. Supreme Court in February this year, a number of U.S. importers such as Walmart and Target can apply for a total of more than $160 billion in tariff refunds. The Trump administration officially launched a tariff refund declaration platform on Monday.
The market originally expected the tax refund process to be smooth and funds to be received quickly, but companies and Wall Street analysts have lowered their expectations, and generally believe that refunds will be difficult to cash in the short term. Trade lawyers remind that the entire application process involves complicated administrative approval barriers and potential legal risks, and the Trump administration does not rule out filing an appeal at the final stage.
Matthew Seligman, chief trade lawyer at Greyhawk Law Firm, said: "Importers are generally not optimistic that the government will simplify the tax refund process. The industry predicts that the official will deliberately set thresholds and delay the refund progress. The Supreme Court has already ruled that this batch of tariffs is non-compliant, but the current progress is still delayed, and companies are very helpless."
Customs duty refund declaration platform officially launched
The U.S. Customs and Border Protection (CBP) launched a new tax refund filing system, the Unified Entry Processing System (CAPE), on Monday.
According to customs instructions, importers can declare taxes previously paid under the Trump administration’s now-expired emergency tariff authority through this system, and the officials will subsequently calculate and issue tax refunds. System rules show that all applications are subject to multiple rounds of review and verification.
Stefan Lessinger, a partner at Norton Rose Fulbright, said: "Whether they are large retail giants such as Walmart or small local merchants, all importers who have paid relevant tariffs need to declare through this system. The official promotion process is very simple, but there are general doubts in the industry, and the actual operating efficiency is questionable."
Retail giants will receive large tax refunds
Wall Street analysts predict that many well-known blue-chip retail companies will receive huge tax refunds.
Citigroup’s April 10 analysis report showed:
| Stock code | Company name | Estimated tax refund amount |
|---|---|---|
| WMT | Walmart | $10.2 billion |
| TGT | Target | $2.2 billion |
| HD | home depot | $540 million |
| KSS | Kohl's | $550 million |
| GAP | Gap | $400 million |
| NKE | Nike | $1 billion |
Most equity research institutions did not include the tax refund in the company's long-term performance guidance. The funds are one-time gains that will improve corporate balance sheets in the coming quarters and can be used by companies to buy back shares, repay debt, and supplement cash flow.
Citi analysts pointed out that most corporate managers have stated that if the tax refunds are received, they will be used for business expansion, stock buybacks, debt repayments, and cash reserves.
Walmart Chief Financial Officer John David Rainey bluntly stated that the tax refund process will not proceed quickly. He said at the JP Morgan Retail Industry Conference on April 8: "The entire process system is complicated, and there is a high probability that refunds will not arrive quickly. We will declare in accordance with the regulations, but the time of payment cannot be determined. From a financial accounting point of view, after the refund is received, it will be included in the income of the current period, directly increasing the company's profits."
At the same time, trade lawyers remind companies of hidden legal risks: Most importers have previously passed on the cost of tariffs to the selling price of goods, pushing up the price of American consumer goods. A January analysis by the Harvard Business School Pricing Lab showed that tariff cost-passing had increased U.S. CPI by 0.76 percentage points through October 2025. After companies receive tax refunds, they may face related lawsuits from consumers and downstream supply chains.
The United States is brewing a new round of tariffs
U.S. government officials have sent a tough signal: Even if emergency tariff authority is rejected by the Supreme Court, they still plan to restore tariff levels through other legal channels. They are currently evaluating the use of Section 301 tariffs, which are mostly used to impose sanctions on unfair trade practices by trading partners.
U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessant said at an event last week that the Supreme Court ruling had hindered the original tariff policy, and the U.S. would launch a Section 301 investigation and assessment, and tariffs may be resumed as early as early July this year.
The import industry is generally worried about this. Eugene Laney, president of the American Association of Importers and Exporters, said that the industry is very worried about this; even if the government activates the 301 tariffs, the intensity of its imposition is likely to be less than the previous emergency tariffs.