Recently, spot electricity prices in many provinces in southern my country have experienced sharp surges.Guangdong is particularly prominent. In April, the real-time average price on the power generation side approached 978 yuan/MWh many times, which is close to 1 yuan/kWh, more than twice the increase from the same period last year. Electricity prices in Guangxi, Yunnan, Guizhou, Hainan and other places have also risen simultaneously.
Data show that from April 1 to 23, the average spot price in the southern region reached 468 yuan/MWh, an increase of 38% from March. Guangdong ranked first in the region with 533 yuan/MWh, and the price of electricity increased significantly.
This increase in electricity prices is the result of multiple factors.
Internationally, the Strait of Hormuz is responsible for about one-third of the world's oil shipping and one-fifth of the LNG trade volume. Shipping has been almost at a standstill since March, with a large number of oil tankers stranded in the Persian Gulf.
The conflict between the United States and Iran caused damage to Qatar's LNG production facilities, my country's long-term LNG procurement contract was suspended, nearly 20% of the world's LNG supply was withdrawn from the market, and Asian gas prices rose sharply.
As of mid-April, China's comprehensive LNG import CIF price increased by 9.38% month-on-month, directly pushing up the cost of power generation.
The proportion of thermal power and gas power installed capacity in Guangdong exceeds 52%. The spot market is priced at the margin by high-cost gas units, driving up electricity prices significantly.
Domestically, summer started earlier in the south, temperatures were higher, air conditioning loads surged, and industrial production was booming. Guangdong’s electricity consumption increased by 7.6% year-on-year in the first quarter, and electricity demand rose sharply.
At the same time, water from the southwest is dry, hydropower output is insufficient, some thermal power plants are undergoing maintenance, and power supply is tightening.
Market mechanisms also amplify price fluctuations.
In the electricity spot market, the marginal electricity price is determined by the gas-fired unit with the highest cost. High gas prices have driven up the overall electricity price. The losses of some electricity sales companies have further aggravated market tensions.
In order to alleviate the pressure on power supply, China Southern Power Grid and the State Grid have strengthened their linkage. In late April, the "Jiangcheng DC" will transmit power to Guangdong at full power, with a maximum transmission capacity of 120 million kilowatt hours in a single day, helping to stabilize power supply and market prices.