On May 30, the New York Times published an article stating that Blue Origin and Amazon, two companies owned by Jeff Bezos, were originally gaining momentum and were narrowing the gap with SpaceX and Starlink owned by Elon Musk. However, a serious rocket explosion on the launch pad on Thursday caused a major setback for them.
New Glenn rocket explodes into fireball
Blue Origin has operated under the radar for years, overshadowed by the success of SpaceX. But over the past year, the company has gained momentum and gotten closer to reliably launching a giant rocket called New Glenn. The rocket was expected to provide the entire aerospace industry with much-needed launch capabilities to carry satellites and other equipment into space.
Earlier this week, NASA gave the rocket a vote of confidence, giving it a bigger role in Artemis' plans to return to the moon. At the same time, Amazon has also prepared 48 satellites to take the rocket into orbit to compete with SpaceX's "Starlink" Internet service.
major setback
However, at about 9 o'clock on Thursday night local time, the "New Glenn" rocket suddenly exploded during a test on the launch pad and turned into a huge fireball.
“This is a major, industry-breathing setback,” said Chad Anderson, a startup investor at venture capital firm Space Capital.
Delays caused by the explosion will affect Blue Origin and its customers, including Amazon and NASA. At this time, SpaceX is approaching a high-profile initial public offering (IPO), with its valuation expected to exceed $1.25 trillion.
The only launch pad was destroyed
If the rocket exploded in mid-air, this failure would be almost a routine accident in aerospace testing, but this explosion severely damaged the launch pad. At least one huge steel structure tower appears to have been almost completely destroyed, and there are many questions about the extent of the damage to the hydraulic and fuel delivery systems crisscrossing the area beneath and around the launch pad's concrete structure.
Blue Origin did not respond to a request for comment. In a social media post late Thursday, the company called the explosion "an anomaly" and said all personnel were safe. Amazon had no immediate comment.
The launch pad was destroyed
Currently, there is only one launch pad for the New Glenn rocket: Launch Complex 36 at the Space Force Station in Cape Canaveral, Florida. Blue Origin has spent several years and more than $1 billion rebuilding the launch site, which was built in the 1960s.
major delays
That means Blue Origin not only has to figure out what went wrong and how to fix it, but it also has to rebuild its launch infrastructure, which could cause the company to face significant delays before it can start testing New Glenn again.
Carissa Christensen, CEO of aerospace analysis and engineering company BryceTech, said the delays would be a blow to Blue Origin, which was already enjoying great momentum.
“I don’t think this will put Blue Origin out of business, or even change the competitive landscape of the entire industry, but it is indeed disappointing,” Christensen said.
Industry observers believe Bezos will not give up his space ambitions. He has a net worth of more than $290 billion and regards Blue Origin as one of the important achievements in his life and career. The resources Blue Origin has at its disposal depend almost entirely on how much money it is willing to invest.
"A very difficult day, but we will rebuild everything that needs to be rebuilt and resume launch," he wrote on social media late Thursday. "It will all be worth it."
Amazon suffers
Blue Origin’s delays have also put Amazon in a more passive position. Amazon is trying to launch commercial operations of its "Amazon Leo" satellite constellation, a project designed to compete with Starlink.
Amazon's launch strategy relies heavily on a new generation of heavy-lift launch vehicles capable of launching dozens of satellites into space at once. For example, the "New Glenn" rocket can carry 48 Amazon satellites at a time, while the previous rocket responsible for the "Amazon Leo" launch mission could only transport 24 to 32 satellites at a time.
Research firm Quilty Space believes that Amazon is becoming a victim of the industry's launch capacity crisis, and the explosion of the "New Glenn" rocket has made it worse.
“The entire space economy relies on rocket launches,” said Kim Burke, director of government affairs at Quilty Space. “So when a rocket fails, no matter which team you support, we all get hit together.”
Amazon satellite project affected
According to an analysis by Quilty Space, about one-third of Amazon’s nearly 3,500 satellites that have yet to be launched were originally planned to be launched by the New Glenn rocket. More satellites are planned to fly aboard United Launch Alliance's new Vulcan Centaur rocket, which is also grappling with an issue with its solid boosters.
If New Glenn's problems end up with Blue Origin's engines, the Vulcan Centaur rocket will also be at further risk, since that rocket uses the same engine.
In the process of catching up with Starlink, “Amazon Leo” has already made certain progress. After one year of launch, the number of satellites in orbit has exceeded 300. According to a satellite tracking database run by astrophysicist Jonathan McDowell, the number of Starlink satellites in orbit has exceeded 10,000.
Amazon's satellites have previously been delivered by small rockets from SpaceX, United Launch Alliance and France's Arianespace. The company has signed up key customers including Delta Air Lines and has a deal with Apple to provide satellite service for iPhones and Apple Watches.
"When we put this service into commercial operation, it will be one of the two most cutting-edge services in technology right now," Amazon CEO Andy Jassy said last month.
Amazon has three launch missions scheduled for small rockets in the coming weeks, one of which could take place as soon as Friday evening. The company said Amazon Leo is still on track to launch commercial service this fall, which will allow Amazon to finally start using revenue to offset the billions of dollars it has invested in building out the network.
However, delays in the launch of the New Glenn rocket may affect the speed of its development thereafter.
"Amazon lost acceleration and backup capacity just when it needed them most," said Space Capital's Anderson.