Spain is the favorite to win the 2026 World Cup, ahead of France, Argentina and Brazil, according to a model forecast released by Goldman Sachs on Friday. The model uses each team's historical performance and ranking data. The model predicts Spain has a 26% chance of winning the World Cup, which takes place between June 11 and July 19 in the United States, Mexico and Canada.
France ranked second with 19%, followed by defending champion Argentina with 14%, Brazil ranked fourth with 8%, and England ranked fifth with 5%.
Goldman Sachs said it bases its predictions primarily on a team's Elo rating, a competitive proficiency ranking system originally used in chess and later adapted for soccer, and incorporates other factors such as offensive talent, recent momentum, mentality and geography.
"Spain is expected to win the tournament as it has the highest Elo ranking and has scoring talent and good game momentum," Goldman Sachs said.
Goldman Sachs said its predictions were broadly consistent with bookmakers' odds, but that England's probability of victory was lower than the betting market expected.
The bank said its model simulates match outcomes using data from nearly 20,000 mandatory international matches since 1978 and will be updated after each match during the tournament.