There are just over two weeks left before SpaceX will be listed on Nasdaq, but Morningstar analysts warn that the valuation of Musk’s technology giant is seriously inflated. The much-anticipated listing is expected to be the largest IPO in history, with SpaceX reportedly planning to raise $75 billion and targeting an overall valuation of $1.75 trillion.
On February 6, 2026, multiple Tesla Cybertruck pickup trucks were parked outside SpaceX’s Starship base factory at the test site in southern Texas.
Morningstar analysts wrote in a research report released on Monday: "We believe that the company's current valuation is significantly high. After the IPO is launched, investors will have a more cost-effective entry opportunity."
Analysts predict that the profit prospects of its xAI business are extremely variable and the commercial moat cannot be determined. This sector will pose a significant risk of value destruction to the group.
After calculating using a discounted cash flow model, Morningstar gave SpaceX a reasonable valuation of US$780 billion, which is a discount of nearly 48% compared to the private market valuation of US$1.5 trillion.
Morningstar reminds that ordinary retail investors are not suitable for entering the market during this new stock issuance stage; however, long-term investors who are optimistic about the company's long-term growth will have an entry window in the future. Compared with the first day of listing, the investment safety margin will be higher at that time.
Morningstar said: "The volume of circulating shares in this listing is relatively small, coupled with the general support of major investment banks around the world, the market's enthusiasm for investment in AI infrastructure targets, and the fact that the new shares are expected to be included in the Nasdaq 100 Index in only 15 trading days after listing, there is a high probability that SpaceX's stock price will stabilize or even rise in stages in the early stage of listing."
Financial report data shows that SpaceX will have a net loss of US$4.94 billion for the whole year of 2025, and recorded a net loss of US$4.28 billion in the latest single quarter.
Its Starlink segment's single-quarter revenue was US$3.26 billion, accounting for 69% of the group's total revenue; its main aerospace business had an operating loss of US$619 million, and its AI subsidiary had a loss of US$2.5 billion. The satellite broadband business was the group's only profitable segment.
Key information: SpaceX disclosed in its U.S. IPO prospectus (S-1) that the company has been in a state of net losses all year round and cannot guarantee profitability in the future.
Most of the company's valuation rests on the research and development of a number of cutting-edge new technologies that have yet to be proven. The prospectus documents mention that before AI products and services can become profitable, the company will continue to invest huge capital expenditures in the next few years.
Dan Coatsworth, head of marketing at AJ Bell, a British investment institution, said that as a previously unlisted company, SpaceX had extremely low financial transparency. Musk held 85% of the voting rights, and the market knew very little about its operating details; ultra-high valuations will become a hidden danger that suppresses subsequent rises in stock prices.
He added: "If it is valued at US$1.75 trillion, SpaceX's price-to-sales ratio will reach 67 times, which is three times NVIDIA's valuation level based on last year's financial report and current prices. Such a valuation bubble is already ridiculously high."
At the same time, rumors have once again spread in the market that Musk may promote the merger of SpaceX and Tesla.