As NASA accelerates the pace of building a permanent habitat on the moon, scientific researchers have begun to extend their attention from engineering problems to another equally critical challenge: the psychological and behavioral risks that may arise from long-term lunar residency.
According to reports, a research team from George Mason University in Virginia, USA, has developed a new model to simulate the dynamic relationships and group behavior of astronaut teams during long-term space travel, and has published relevant research in "PLOS One". The research team believes that dealing with behavioral risks in long-term space missions is as important as solving technical and engineering problems.
Study leader Raymond Vera said catastrophic consequences may not start with a major accident, but with seemingly ordinary interpersonal conflicts, a decline in morale, or repeated mission failures. In his view, once these problems enter a feedback loop, they may gradually amplify, weakening maintenance, resource production, and overall operational efficiency, eventually leading to shortages of key resources such as air, water, and food. In severe cases, they may even evolve into mission failures and endanger lives.
This research is closely related to the goals of NASA's Artemis program. The plan aims to establish a permanent human presence on the moon and pave the way for further exploration of the solar system, including future trips to Mars. Research points out that the first batch of human astronauts heading to the lunar south pole will be isolated from the earth for a long time and perform tasks in a harsh and complex lunar surface environment, which will undoubtedly bring huge psychological pressure to the team.
To this end, the research team built an agent-based model, the ABM simulation system, using virtual astronauts to simulate team interactions in the lunar base. These virtual astronauts are given characteristics such as personality, professional skills and physical health, and the system will repeatedly deduce possible results under different initial conditions and multiple interactions. After conducting tens of thousands of simulations, the team found that larger crews tend to have a better chance of success because of the higher likelihood of personality matching; but the longer the mission lasts, the greater the risk of problem exposure and accumulation.
The researchers also drew on historical manned space missions and psychological studies by extreme environment teams on Earth when modeling, including a field study in Antarctica's Lambert Glacier Basin that lasted more than 100 days. Vera said that this type of research has similarities with lunar base missions in terms of isolation, closure, environmental dangers, and high reliance on teamwork, so it can provide important reference for lunar missions.
The research team believes that this simulation method can help mission planners identify potential problems in advance, thereby improving the success rate of future lunar missions. Vera also said that ABM is similar to a "space version of The Sims," but its purpose is not entertainment, but a scientific assessment of the possible results of complex systems under different conditions. Research results show that planning for future lunar missions must not only consider rockets, bases and supplies, but also must incorporate astronauts’ psychological state and team relationships into the core design.