On June 10, the New York Times published an article on Tuesday discussing the prospects of the United States returning to the moon in 2028. The article stated that experts have always held out hope for this,But the moon landing depends largely on the wishes of two billionaires, Elon Musk and Jeff Bezos.


Mark 2 lunar lander concept image released by Blue Origin

NASA hopes 2028 will be the year it lands a man on the moon, an ambition that coincides with President Trump's goal of returning humans to the lunar surface before the end of his second term. Whether this goal can be achieved on time depends on the success of the Artemis 3 mission planned to be launched in mid-2027.

When NASA announced its astronaut candidates for Artemis 3 on Tuesday, it was mainly building momentum for the upcoming mission. But little information has been provided on whether NASA can still achieve its moon landing goal.

However, at a subsequent media conference, NASA Administrator Jared Isaacman said that they are "extremely confident" in achieving this goal and said that they will be transparent if there are any progress changes.

"We'll be back on the moon by the end of 2028," Isaacman said. "We'll see."

Doubt

Experts are hopeful that NASA will return to the moon, but they also express doubts about the feasibility of achieving this goal by 2028.

"I think I and most people feel that this is not a realistic target time," said Casey Dreier, director of space policy at the Planetary Society.

In April this year, NASA proved through the "Artemis 2" mission that it can use the huge "Space Launch System" rocket and the "Orion" spacecraft to send humans into lunar orbit. However, NASA is relying on two private companies, SpaceX and Blue Origin, to provide landers for future missions that will be used to take astronauts from lunar orbit to the lunar surface and back again.

Dreier said this would allow NASA to reach the moon at a cost far lower than in the Apollo era, but it also means that the agency's moon landing ambitions are largely subject to the wishes of two billionaires, Musk and Bezos.

"You actually placed so much power and hope on just two people, asking them to provide capabilities that are critical to national goals," he said. "NASA can only passively witness its own destiny."


NASA announces astronauts for Artemis 3 mission

Neither SpaceX nor Blue Origin have completed the development of lunar landers, and the rockets used to send these landers to the moon are not ready. SpaceX's Starship has repeatedly failed in test flights, while Blue Origin's New Glenn rocket exploded in May, destroying the company's only launch pad.

possible postponement

These conditions are likely to delay NASA's goal of landing a moon landing in 2028. In addition, some external factors, such as severe weather or a government shutdown, may also affect this timeline.

“This is unrealistic,” Phil McAlister, former director of NASA’s commercial space division, wrote in an email, “but at the same time, I wouldn’t say it’s impossible.”

Clayton Swope, associate director of the Aerospace Security Program at the Center for Strategic and International Studies in Washington, D.C., echoed similar sentiments.

“The answer is increasingly likely to be no,” he said of the possibility of a moon landing in 2028, “but there could still be a chance for a comeback.”

Landing on the moon has always been difficult, even for unmanned missions.In 2023, Russia made its first attempt to land on the moon since the 1970s, but the spacecraft crashed into the lunar surface. In 2024, a Japanese spacecraft carrying two rovers overturned while landing on the moon. A probe landed last year by Intuition Machines, a private company in Houston, also rolled over.

China has been particularly successful with its lunar missions. China deployed lunar rovers on the lunar surface in 2013 and 2019, and brought back lunar soil samples from the front side of the moon in 2020 and the back side of the moon in 2024. China plans to achieve a manned moon landing by 2030.

Swope said,Defeating China in the race to the moon is one of the reasons why NASA is striving to land on the moon in 2028, with economic growth and commercial development being other motivations.

"However, space is about much more than that," he said, adding that establishing a long-term lunar base is an important step in building a better future for future generations. "We go to the moon and beyond, which is part of the journey to realize this vision."