The United States suspects that ASML's top lithography machines have flowed into China. The Dutch giant insists that it is "impossible"

U.S. Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick expressed concern to executives of Dutch lithography giant ASML in a series of meetings recently, saying that an extreme ultraviolet (EUV) lithography machine may flow into China. If true, this would constitute a major violation of the current export control system. ASML firmly denied it, saying that the company has never delivered any EUV systems to China, and the U.S. Department of Commerce has not publicly displayed the so-called evidence to the media or ASML.

According to Bloomberg, officials within the U.S. government claimed to have evidence that ASML shipped EUV-related components and transportation equipment to China. However, they did not produce specific materials when asked multiple times, nor did they explain whether the complete machine had indeed landed in China. ASML has made it clear that the EUV lithography machines produced by the company in its history are all being strictly tracked and are either running in the hands of customers and their status can be monitored, or they have been disassembled and recycled within ASML.

Headquartered in the Netherlands, ASML may not be well-known to the general public, but in the construction of global AI computing infrastructure, it is one of the most critical companies after NVIDIA and several ultra-large-scale cloud vendors in the United States. Currently, ASML is the only company in the world that can produce EUV lithography machines. This equipment can carve the most advanced chip circuits on silicon wafers, allowing TSMC to mass-produce cutting-edge processors for companies such as Nvidia and Apple. It is precisely because of this technology monopoly that ASML has become one of the most valuable listed companies in Europe. The market value has recently hovered at about 700 billion US dollars. It has risen sharply in the past year driven by the demand for AI chips.

Because of this, the question of "whether EUV enters China" is particularly sensitive. If even one EUV system flows into China, it will be regarded as one of the most serious loopholes in the high-end chip and AI computing power export control system built by the United States in recent years, directly touching the bottom line of Washington's attempt to restrict the upgrade of Beijing's military and high-tech industrial base. As early as Trump's first term, the United States pushed the Dutch government to deny ASML's license to export EUV to China. Since then, the Chinese market has been blocked from this technological generational threshold.

ASML CEO Christophe Fouquet responded head-on to the "China issue" in an interview six weeks ago. He said that the company has established a complete tracking system for all factory equipment. Each EUV is either running on the production line of an authorized customer and in a monitorable state, or it has been returned to ASML and disassembled. In addition, ASML has internally implemented a "firewall" system for personnel exposed to EUV technology: employees who have access to EUV technology, documents and training materials are completely isolated from employees who cannot access relevant information, while the Chinese team is deliberately placed on the other side of the "firewall" to prevent them from being exposed to key technical details.

Furich also emphasized that the reason why ASML was able to build an EUV lithography machine is based on the technology accumulated by the company over decades: about 80% of the technology of the whole machine is derived from past experience. The truly new difficulty is how to generate EUV light sources, and this problem alone took about twenty years to overcome. In his view, it is difficult to reverse-engineer a complete EUV system without having personal contact with the entire machine and relying only on external observations or scattered information. This is also one of the core logics of his argument that "China cannot create EUV by stealing from others."

In addition to technical and safety considerations, ASML also denied its motive for secretly providing EUV to China based on commercial interests. The company is still allowed to sell older generation deep ultraviolet (DUV) lithography machines to China. These equipment first began shipping more than a decade ago and still form an important part of ASML's business in China. According to Furich, the company intentionally maintains a generational gap: by selling tools that are one or two generations behind, Chinese customers still have business to do, but it is difficult to catch up with the world's most cutting-edge levels, thus maintaining revenue while reducing the risk of cultivating future competitors. ASML predicts that about 20% of its revenue in 2026 will come from currently permitted sales to China. If it risks violating the EUV export ban for a single illegal transaction, it will not only endanger this revenue, but also may shake its status as one of the "most profitable monopolies in Europe."

However, ASML's statement cannot directly prove that the US government's suspicions are wrong, because the latter has not yet disclosed the so-called evidence in its hands. Before the evidence is made public, it is difficult for the outside world to make a final judgment, leaving room for political and commercial interpretations by all parties.

It is worth noting that the U.S. Department of Commerce, under the leadership of Lutnick, agreed late last year to provide up to $150 million in government funding to a start-up company called xLight to support its development of a new generation of light source technology. It is generally believed that this technology may theoretically fundamentally challenge ASML's monopoly on EUV light sources. However, xLight’s CEO previously stated in an interview that the company prefers to position itself as a future partner of ASML rather than a direct competitor. Its goal is to create a light source module that can be embedded in an ASML lithography machine, rather than a complete machine solution that completely replaces ASML.

When the reporter relayed this "partner" positioning to Furich, he remained polite but did not fully agree. In his view, ASML does not believe that it needs to rely on xLight's technology to stay ahead of the industry. The company is confident enough in the continuity and advantages of its own technology route. This has also led to outside speculation: In the context of the U.S. government being both a "regulator" and a potential beneficiary of new technologies through investment, whether the government's review of ASML will be affected by industrial layout and interest considerations.

In addition to xLight, Peter Thiel has also bet on a startup called Substrate, hoping to make a breakthrough in EUV alternative technology. Different from xLight's positioning as an "ASML partner," Substrate clearly proposes to develop a solution that can directly compete with ASML technology, and its ambition is to become one of the potential alternatives to EUV.

Against the background of geopolitical tensions, a bipartisan bill in the U.S. Congress is also being advanced, and its scope extends far beyond EUV. The goal of the bill is to tighten the export of advanced manufacturing tools to China on a larger scale, including an effective total ban on ASML's export of all DUV models to China, and these lower-generation equipment currently contribute about one-fifth of ASML's expected 2026 revenue. The bill passed key committees in April, and the Trump administration has yet to make a formal statement on its position.

While the United States continues to tighten export controls and internally supports many potential "next-generation lithography technology" companies, ASML is at the center of the intersection of multiple forces: on the one hand, it is an irreplaceable infrastructure supplier for the global high-end chip and AI industries, and any adjustment to its export roadmap will affect the entire supply chain; on the other hand, it is the subject of scrutiny and pressure from the U.S. government, and is required to find a delicate balance between business interests, alliance relationships, and restrictions on China. As for whether the rumored "EUV lithography machine in China" actually exists, we can only wait and see whether the US government is willing to provide more concrete evidence and accept external inspection.