Goldman Sachs said that the accelerated popularity of electric vehicles after the situation in the Strait of Hormuz impacted oil supply could lead to a reduction in global oil demand by as much as 320,000 barrels per day by the end of 2027. The bank said in a report that the global electric vehicle sales penetration rate increased by 3.4 percentage points last month to 26.1%, the second highest level in history.
Goldman Sachs expects global oil demand to fall by about 130,000 barrels per day by December 2027 under its "temporary acceleration" scenario, which assumes that electric vehicle penetration in various regions will remain unchanged at May 2026 levels.
Under the "continuous acceleration" scenario, if it is assumed that the penetration rate of electric vehicles in various regions increases linearly according to the trend from February to May 2026, the demand loss during the same period may reach approximately 320,000 barrels per day.
Goldman Sachs wrote in the report: "It is particularly noteworthy that in Asian countries such as India and Vietnam, two-wheeled and three-wheeled electric vehicles account for the majority of total electric vehicle sales, and the amount of fuel they replace can reach one-third to one-half of the amount replaced by passenger electric vehicles."
The bank said that the penetration rate of 12 of the world's 15 largest electric vehicle markets is on the rise.