On June 24, Omdia released its latest forecast report showing that due to rising component costs and geopolitical uncertainty, global smartphone shipments are expected to drop 12.2% year-on-year to 1.093 billion units in 2026, a decrease of approximately 152 million units from 2025. However, the total market value is expected to increase by 6.1% year-on-year during the same period,The global average selling price of smartphones will jump from US$467 in 2025 to US$565 (approximately RMB 3,842 at the current exchange rate), an increase of 21% (approximately US$98), with both growth rate and absolute growth reaching record highs.
The price surge is mainly driven by the prices of DRAM and NAND flash memory: the average price of memory in Q1 of 2026 increased by more than 80% month-on-month, and continued to rise in Q2. In order to protect profit margins, manufacturers are actively reducing low-end product lines and increasing the proportion of mid-to-high-end models. This strategy will lead to a sharp decline in demand in markets in Africa, the Middle East and Latin America that are highly dependent on low-end equipment, while developed markets are more resilient.
Omdia predicts that the market contraction trend will continue until 2027 (the decline in shipments narrows to 0.9%), and the real recovery in shipments may begin in 2028. The dominant players in the ultra-low-end smartphone market are expected to shift from large global brands to small and medium-sized local and regional players.
