The latest prediction from market research firm IDC states that Apple will significantly increase the price of the iPhone 18 Pro and iPhone 18 Pro Max released this year, and the increase may be as high as $200. After Apple just raised the prices of some Mac and iPad models this week, IDC further raised its previous price increase expectations for the iPhone 18 series.
In its initial forecast, IDC believed that the starting price of the iPhone 18 Pro and Pro Max would increase by $100, while the increase for the standard and entry-level models was expected to be $50. However, with the latest round of price increases of up to $300 for some Mac and iPad models, Nabila Popal, senior director of data and analysis at IDC, said the trend means the iPhone 18 series may see even higher increases than previously thought. She judged that the price increase for Pro and Pro Max models "maybe as high as $200" and bluntly stated that "the era of small price increases at the $50 level is over."
IDC pointed out that Apple plans to launch its first foldable iPhone this year, which is expected to have an average selling price of about US$2,500, and the price of high-storage versions may be as high as US$3,000. IDC believes that this ultra-high-priced model is expected to hedge to a certain extent against the rising costs of key components such as storage, thereby avoiding larger price adjustments to other models.
Regarding the background of this round of widespread price increases, IDC attributed the reason to the "memory crisis" caused by the tight supply of global memory chips. Due to supply constraints and component costs generally rising, Apple was forced to raise prices simultaneously on multiple product lines. According to reports, the iPhone 18 Pro and iPhone 18 Pro Max will be equipped with 12GB of running memory, which is similar to the specifications of some of the latest iPads. The current M4 iPad Air equipped with 12GB of memory and the low-end version M5 iPad Pro have increased by US$150 and US$200 respectively compared with the previous generation. This increase is regarded as an important reference for observing the pricing strategy of the iPhone 18 Pro.
According to IDC's calculations, if the price increase pace remains similar to that of the iPad, the starting price of the iPhone 18 Pro may be pushed up to the range of US$1,249-1,299, while the starting price of the iPhone 18 Pro Max may be between US$1,349-1,399. However, institutions judge that even if there is a $200-level increase, demand for the Pro series will not be fundamentally affected.
IDC believes that the key driving force for user upgrades comes from Siri’s AI capabilities, which will be implemented on a large scale with the new system. The agency estimates that 54% of iPhone models shipped since 2022 will need to be replaced to obtain the full AI capabilities of the latest version of Siri. For users holding iPhone 15 non-Pro models or earlier products, this will become an important inducement to switch.
In terms of consumer behavior, IDC pointed out that users who choose Pro Max are usually more high-end and have relatively low price sensitivity, so it is difficult to be dissuaded by price increases. In addition, a significant number of consumers will spread the one-time price increase into their monthly budget through 24 to 36 monthly installment plans through their carrier or finance plan. Taking a 36-month installment as an example, the additional cost of $200 is spread out to only about $5 per month, a level that IDC therefore judged to have "limited impact on the purchasing decisions of most target groups."
In multiple rounds of forecasts, IDC has continued to raise its price expectations for high-end iPhone 18 models. On the other hand, it has also emphasized that Apple still has the motivation to carefully balance the pace of price increases in the overall product line to avoid the price of core flagship products rising too quickly. As this fall's new product release window approaches, the outside world is paying close attention to Apple's final choice in pricing for the iPhone 18 series, and whether this will become the first obvious price inflection point after Apple fully enters the "AI mobile phone era."