Apple is expected to officially launch its first foldable screen iPhone - tentatively called iPhone Fold - at the same time as the iPhone 18 Pro this fall. However, the launch time of this blockbuster new product is likely to be significantly out of step with the traditional "release in September, release in the same year" rhythm. The latest supply chain news shows that Apple may "repeat the plot of iPhone X": it will be unveiled at the annual conference in September this year, but the actual opening of pre-orders and large-scale sales may be delayed for several months, and some users may even wait until 2027 to successfully buy spot products.
The latest report from TF International Securities analyst Ming-Chi Kuo released on the X platform pointed out that the iPhone Fold production capacity currently planned in the supply chain is not enough to support the "release and sale" rhythm. He believes that, at least in the early stages of its launch, the foldable iPhone will, like the iPhone X in 2017, experience a long waiting window after the launch before pre-orders will be opened and the first batch of shipments will be arranged. That year, Apple released iPhone 8, iPhone 8 Plus and iPhone X in September, but iPhone
Judging from current production targets, the supply chain plans to produce approximately 7 million to 8 million iPhone Fold units in the second half of this year (2026). However, in the third quarter, the actual production of the foldable iPhone was only between 500,000 and 1 million units, which is far lower than that of regular flagship models. In sharp contrast, planned production of iPhone 18 Pro and iPhone 18 Pro Max is as high as approximately 20 million units during the same period. This capacity gap almost makes it clear that the supply of iPhone Fold will be very tight in the early stages of launch. Postponing sales and distributing goods in stages are realistic options that are easier for the supply chain to digest.
This is not the first time in the history of Apple’s product line that such a rhythm has occurred. Ming-Chi Kuo pointed out that the core reason for the delay in the launch of iPhone X in 2017 is that the production process needs time to digest the introduction of a large number of new technologies and processes. At that time, the iPhone
The situation of the foldable iPhone is similar to that of the iPhone X to a certain extent, and even goes further in terms of technical complexity. In addition to the reliability and yield challenges of the foldable display itself, the outside world has repeatedly reported that its folding hinge structure has "engineering difficulties" that require Apple and supply chain partners to repeatedly optimize the design and manufacturing process. Since the folding structure has extremely high durability requirements, any detail problems will be magnified into potential failure risks in actual use. This also forces more caution in the ramp-up phase of mass production, further limiting the production capacity that can be released in the short term.
Ming-Chi Kuo has always been regarded as a relatively reliable source of information in the field of Apple's new product predictions due to his long-term in-depth supply chain research record. In the past, many predictions about new product release time, production progress, changes in key specifications, etc. have been verified by subsequent facts, and its reports are often considered to be closer to the real production conditions than ordinary "revelation". With this latest analysis, rumors about iPhone Fold being delayed and production limited can be said to have added evidence from the supply chain.
Judging from the current information, Apple seems to have preset a "step-by-step launch" rhythm for the foldable iPhone similar to the iPhone X: first, it will be unveiled in a high-profile conference in September, emphasizing its innovation in design, form and user experience. After the production capacity gradually ramps up, it will be slowly introduced to the market by delaying pre-orders and launching sales in batches. For ordinary consumers, this means that even if the real iPhone Fold can be seen at the conference this fall, it may be after 2027 to actually get it in stock or even buy it easily through normal channels.