U.S. President Trump continues to pressure Health and Human Services Secretary Robert F. Kennedy Jr. to push for cutting the number of recommended vaccinations for children and to conduct an in-depth investigation into the link between vaccines and autism. This move is in clear disagreement with the White House political advisory team's previous position of recommending downplaying the vaccine issue in preparation for the midterm elections. According to people familiar with the matter, Trump made it clear in many meetings that he hoped that Kennedy would make substantial progress in research on the link between vaccines and autism, and regarded this as a key indicator of the success or failure of Kennedy's term.
President continues pressure to cut vaccines
In May of this year, when Trump had lunch with Kennedy at his golf course in northern Virginia, he pointedly criticized Kennedy's "inadequate action" in investigating the link between vaccines and autism. Since then, Trump has brought the topic to the vaccine issue in almost every meeting with Kennedy, and expressed dissatisfaction again at the White House Oval Office meeting in mid-June.
People familiar with the matter said that Trump believed that Kennedy had been given enough time and was disappointed that he had not achieved more results in the past year and a half, and had told aides that if Kennedy did not make progress on this issue "it would be a failure."
At the end of May this year, Trump signed an executive order requiring the Department of Health and Human Services to reduce the number of childhood vaccinations recommended in federal guidelines, saying that the United States was out of touch with other countries in this regard. Some top health officials were confused by the order because they had been instructed by the White House to relax vaccine efforts before the midterm elections.
Science refutes link, data reveals rise in autism rates
Many scientists have pointed out that there is currently no scientific basis to support drastic cuts in childhood vaccination programs. Modern vaccines are more precise than before, fighting more diseases while stimulating the immune system with fewer antigens. Regarding the measles, mumps and rubella triple vaccine (MMR), which Trump is particularly concerned about, multiple scientific studies have shown that it is not related to autism, including a 2019 study involving more than 600,000 children in Denmark and a 2021 Cochran systematic review covering 138 studies.
Data from the U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention show that the incidence of autism spectrum disorder among 8-year-old children in the United States in 2022 is about 1/31, compared with about 1/150 in 2000. Scientists have yet to determine the exact cause of the rising incidence, but some scholars believe genetic factors, older parents or improved screening and diagnosis systems may be behind it.
Kennedy faces dilemma: White House advice conflicts with president's wishes
According to people familiar with the matter, Kennedy has long been skeptical of vaccination, but White House political advisers had previously asked him to curb his vaccine-related remarks before the mid-term elections. Polls show vaccine skepticism is unpopular among voters, while Kennedy's efforts to improve food quality are gaining traction. Kennedy and his team therefore adjusted their strategy and basically avoided the topic of vaccines in public.
However, Trump did not follow the advice of his senior advisers. Trump has said publicly that he hopes to split the triple vaccine into single doses, although scientists believe that this lacks scientific basis and may lead to missed vaccinations.
Trump has long expressed doubts about the link between vaccines and autism, although scientific advisers during his first term have explicitly denied the link. In 2014, Trump posted on social media: "If I are elected president, I will promote appropriate vaccinations, but I will not allow young children to receive a one-time large-dose injection - which can cause autism."
Legal obstacles and policy advancement
In January this year, Kennedy proposed cutting the types of recommended vaccinations for children from 17 to 11. However, federal judge Brian E. Murphy halted the plan in March, ruling that the government did not consult the Vaccine Advisory Committee in accordance with prescribed procedures and that Kennedy's appointment of the committee members was illegal. The government has appealed. Both Trump and Kennedy believe the judge's ruling was unfair and are discussing various legal responses.
At the same time, the Kennedy team has issued a new charter for the committee, lowering the professional qualification requirements for members, and has begun appointing new members.
Slow progress on Kennedy agenda leads to speculation about future direction
Kennedy has made some progress on dietary guidance as part of Trump's "Make America Healthy Again" agenda, including new dietary guidelines that encourage Americans to "eat real food" and companies voluntarily removing food additives, but has stalled on commitments to eliminate toxic additives and pesticides from food, and concerns have grown that his food plans could drive up consumer costs.
The Department of Health and Human Services also faces broader challenges, including disputes with states over claims of Medicaid fraud, vacancies in key positions, a three-decade high in measles cases and a growing cyclosporiasis outbreak caused by contaminated vegetables.
Speculation about Kennedy's future continues to grow. Centers for Medicare and Medicaid Services head Mehmet Oz is seen as a potential successor, with multiple lobbyists and Department of Health and Human Services employees privately predicting that Oz could succeed Kennedy after the midterm elections. Trump frequently communicates with Oz on health policy matters, and Oz has deep trust in the White House. This summer, rumors that Kennedy would leave his post once attracted attention, but were denied by senior officials at the Department of Health and Human Services.
People familiar with the matter said that Kennedy hopes to serve in the government for a long time and even stay in office until the next presidential term. His goal is to resolve political pressure and ensure Trump's satisfaction by accepting arrangements from the White House staff and avoiding confrontation with the White House on controversial issues.