New research from Northumbria University suggests there is only a limited amount of time before Antarctica begins to suffer massive and irreversible ice loss. The window of time to prevent massive, irreversible melting of Antarctic ice is very limited, according to two recent studies from Northumbria University.
The findings, published in the journal The Cryosphere, are the first comprehensive analysis of whether the Antarctic ice sheet has passed a tipping point of irreversible decline.
The ongoing loss of ice and snow in Antarctica has sparked concerns that the West Antarctic Ice Sheet may have become unstable and "has passed the point of no return." However, researchers have now conducted a systematic analysis of the problem and found no evidence that it has reached a tipping point.
Modeling research offers hope
The modeling study, conducted by Northumbria University and several research institutions in Europe, used three different computer models to conduct a series of simulations to thoroughly examine the current retreat of the Antarctic ice sheet, looking for signs of irreversible retreat.
While Antarctica's ice loss will continue into the future, the results offer a glimmer of hope that if urgent action is taken, it may still be possible to avoid or delay crossing the tipping point, the study authors said.
Dr Emily Hill, co-author of the report and a researcher at Northumbria University, said: "The implications are profound. We used three different numerical models and they all showed that we have not yet passed the tipping point leading to irreversible ice loss in Antarctica. Using multiple models makes our findings more convincing and it is reassuring that we have not passed the point of no return."
potential future scenarios
However, the researchers also performed what-if simulations to examine how the ice sheet might evolve if current climate conditions remained unchanged. They found that some ocean regions of the West Antarctic Ice Sheet are likely to irreversibly collapse in the future, even if global warming ceases.
One of their models shows that under current conditions this could happen as early as 300-500 years, and they warn that accelerated climate change could shorten this timescale even further.
The global impact of Antarctic ice loss
Antarctica's ice mass stores enough water to raise global sea levels by several meters, which remains one of the biggest uncertainties in projections of future climate change impacts.
Dr Ronja Reese, co-author of the report and vice-chancellor researcher at Northumbria University, said: "Accelerated ice loss at the edge of the ice sheet may herald the collapse of larger ocean areas. Our experiments show that under current climate conditions, some ocean areas in West Antarctica are at risk of irreversible collapse. Importantly, as our first study shows, this collapse has not yet occurred and it will take thousands of years to evolve. But we expect that further warming of the climate in the future will greatly accelerate this process."
The research is part of a larger £4 million EU-funded study on Critical Points in Antarctic Climate Compositions (TiPACCs), which brings together experts from the UK, Norway, Germany and France to investigate the potential for sudden changes in the movement of ice in the Antarctic region.
Petra Langebroek, Director of Research at the Norwegian Research Center (NORCE) and Scientific Coordinator of the European TiPACCs project, said: "I am very proud to see the results of this study published. The close cooperation between different European institutions allows us to have a clear understanding of the Antarctic ice sheet stability and Significant progress has been made in understanding tipping points. This is also good news. We are not yet past these tipping points in Antarctica, which theoretically means that continued ice loss can be reduced or even stopped. Unfortunately, our research also shows that we are about to cross the tipping point in West Antarctica as climate change continues to increase."
Northumbria University is home to one of the world's leading research groups on ice sheet and ocean interactions. The research team is dedicated to exploring the future of global ice sheets and glaciers in a warming world. This includes understanding the causes of ongoing changes in Antarctica, Greenland and high mountain regions, as well as assessing future changes and resulting impacts on the global human environment.
Compiled source: ScitechDaily