On January 2, SEMI announced that after global semiconductor monthly wafer (WPM) production capacity increased by 5.5% to 29.6 million pieces in 2023, it is expected to increase by 6.4% in 2024, exceeding the 30 million monthly mark for the first time (calculated in 200mm equivalent). Growth in 2024 will be driven by capacity growth in cutting-edge logic and foundry, applications including generative artificial intelligence and high-performance computing (HPC), and a recovery in chip end demand. Capacity expansion will slow in 2023 due to weak semiconductor market demand and resulting inventory adjustments.
SEMI President and CEO Ajit Manocha said: "Recovery in global market demand and increasing government incentives have driven a surge in fab investment in key chip manufacturing regions, with global semiconductor production capacity expected to grow by 6.4% in 2024. The heightened global focus on the strategic importance of semiconductor manufacturing to national and economic security is a key catalyst for these trends."
The "World Fab Forecast Report" shows that from 2022 to 2024, the global semiconductor industry plans to start operating 82 new fabs, including 11 projects in 2023 and 42 projects in 2024, with wafer sizes ranging from 300mm to 100mm.
Driven by government funding and other incentives, China is expected to increase its share of global semiconductor capacity. Chinese chip manufacturers are expected to start operating 18 projects in 2024, with production capacity increasing by 12% year-on-year in 2023 to 7.6 million wafers per month, and production capacity increasing by 13% year-on-year in 2024 to 8.6 million wafers per month.
Taiwan, China, is expected to remain the second largest region in semiconductor production capacity, with production capacity increasing 5.6% to 5.4 million wafers per month in 2023 and 4.2% to 5.7 million wafers per month in 2024. The region is preparing to start operating five wafer fabs in 2024.
South Korea ranks third in chip production capacity, with 4.9 million wafers per month in 2023, increasing by 5.4% to 5.1 million wafers per month in 2024 as a wafer fab comes into operation. Japan is expected to rank fourth with monthly production of 4.6 million wafers in 2023 and 4.7 million wafers in 2024, with capacity increasing by 2% as four fabs come online in 2024.
The "World Fab Forecast Report" shows that in 2024, 6 new wafer fabs will be added in the Americas, and chip production capacity will increase by 6% year-on-year, reaching 3.1 million wafers per month. Capacity in Europe and the Middle East is expected to grow 3.6% in 2024 to 2.7 million wafers per month as four new fabs come online. With the launch of four new fab projects, Southeast Asia is preparing to increase production capacity by 4% in 2024 to 1.7 million wafers per month.
Foundry suppliers are expected to become the largest buyers of semiconductor equipment, with production capacity increasing to 9.3 million wafers per month in 2023 and reaching a record 10.2 million wafers per month in 2024.
The memory sector has slowed capacity expansion in 2023 due to weak demand for consumer electronics including personal computers and smartphones. The DRAM field is expected to increase production capacity by 2% in 2023 to 3.8 million wafers per month, and by 5% in 2024 to 4 million wafers per month. 3D NAND's installed capacity is expected to remain flat at 3.6 million wafers per month in 2023 and increase 2% to 3.7 million wafers per month in 2024.
In both the discrete and analog segments, vehicle electrification remains a key driver of capacity expansion. Discrete capacity is expected to grow 10% in 2023 to 4.1 million wafers per month and 7% in 2024 to 4.4 million wafers per month. Analog capacity is expected to grow 11% in 2023 to 2.1 million wafers per month and 10% in 2024 to 2.4 million wafers per month.