According to the latest data from Counterpoint Research, as of the fourth quarter of 2023, global PC market shipments fell by 0.2% year-on-year, which was the eighth consecutive year-on-year shipment decline since the first quarter of 2022. The year-end holiday shopping season failed to stimulate a substantial recovery in shipments, and the growth momentum of OEM and ODM shipments is expected to resume in the first half of 2024. The replacement cycle of AIPC and enterprise PC will mainly support shipment growth in 2024, with a year-on-year growth of 5% expected.
Due to sluggish enterprise and consumer demand, the overall global PC market shipments fell by 14% year-on-year throughout 2023. In addition, although there are many products released in the second half of the year, most of them will not start shipping until 2024, which will also weaken the shipment momentum in 2023. On the other hand, PC inventory levels have returned to normal and are close to healthy levels, paving the way for upcoming new product launches.
The PCOEM vendor ranking remains unchanged throughout 2023 as weak demand and inventory digestion drag down shipment performance across the market. However, thanks to the rebound in shipments and inventory replenishment momentum in the North American market, leading PC manufacturers are still experiencing varying degrees of growth. For example, Lenovo (00992) and Hewlett-Packard (HPQ.US) both recorded near-mid-single-digit year-on-year growth in shipments in the fourth quarter of 2023. Affected by sluggish enterprise demand, Dell's (DELL.US) shipments fell 9% year-on-year, while Apple (AAPL.US) remained solid, with shipments rising 2% year-on-year in the quarter.
For 2023 as a whole, Lenovo and HP will continue to lead the market with 24% and 21% market shares respectively. Due to the rebound in inventory replenishment momentum in the North American market, HP's shipments during the year only fell 5% year-on-year and remained relatively stable. Dell holds 16% of the market, but sluggish enterprise demand has caused its shipments to fall by 20%. Apple's shipments in 2023 also fell by 14%, but its market share remained at around 9%.
Counterpoint Research believes that as Intel (INTC.US) and AMD (AMD.US) have proposed self-developed CPU solutions for the next generation of AIPC (Meteor Lake and HawkPoint), AIPC will become the focus of attention in 2024. PC manufacturers also continue to launch new AIPC products that support AI functions/platform services for different consumer markets. After CES, PC manufacturers will launch more AIPC products, but the main replacement cycle is expected to start in the second half of 2024. It is estimated that the penetration rate of AI laptops is expected to reach 50% by 2025, and in addition to the main CPU and GPU, the PC will also be equipped with at least one NPU or AI accelerator (AI engine).
The slowdown in corporate spending and the destocking process in 2023 will drive PC manufacturers' inventory replenishment needs and become a driving force for the enterprise PC market. On the other hand, Qualcomm equips its ArmPC with Nuvia-based Snapdragon XElite solution, which will bring new impetus throughout 2024, which may mark another milestone for the ArmPC industry after Apple's successful launch of M series Macbook.