A recent study shows that air pollution from fossil fuels has far greater health impacts than previously thought. Eliminating the use of fossil fuels can significantly improve public health.Air pollution remains a significant risk to public health, and estimates of the impact of air pollution on mortality vary because of how studies measure exposure-response relationships and the types of deaths they consider. Additionally, there are few studies globally linking mortality to specific sources of air pollution.
In the latest study, a team led by Jos Lelieveld and Andrea Pozzer of the Max Planck Institute of Chemistry and Andy Haines of the London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine explored the impact of phasing out fossil fuels on specific diseases and overall mortality, focusing specifically on associated changes in air pollution levels.
The researchers found that the majority of the mortality burden (52%) was related to cardiometabolic diseases, particularly ischemic heart disease (30%), which can lead to heart attacks. Stroke and chronic obstructive pulmonary disease each account for about 16%. The cause of approximately 20% is unknown and may be related to arterial hypertension, diabetes, and neurodegenerative diseases.
"We estimate that 5.13 million people die globally each year from ambient air pollution caused by fossil fuel use, so phasing out fossil fuels has the potential to avoid this," said atmospheric chemist Jos Lelieveld, director of the Max Planck Institute for Chemistry. "This is equivalent to 82% of the upper limit of the number of deaths from air pollution that can be avoided by controlling all anthropogenic emissions."
The new findings are obtained by applying a new relative risk model that optimizes exposure-response relationships across a global range of environmental exposure levels. In addition, this study provides estimates of cause-specific and all-cause mortality from long-term exposure to particulate matter (PM2.5) and ozone (O3) and attributes them to pollution sources.
Scientists developed a data-constrained global atmosphere modeling method to calculate gaseous and particulate air pollutants and assign them to pollution source categories. Atmospheric models were used to calculate fractional changes in PM2.5 relative to emission sectors, with calculations based on computer simulations in which source categories were sequentially switched off.
AndreaPozzer explains: "We then applied the fractional changes calculated by the model to high-resolution observational data of particulate matter pollution to determine the reduction in exposure under four emission scenarios. The first scenario assumes that all fossil fuel-related emission sources are phased out. The second and third scenarios, the 'quarter' and 'half' scenarios, respectively, assume that after the fossil fuel phase-out Exposure reductions amounted to 25% and 50%. Finally, the fourth scenario eliminated all anthropogenic sources as a reference and therefore only considered natural sources such as weathering dust, emissions from the marine and terrestrial biosphere, and natural wildfires. Since the response was not strongly nonlinear, the team of scientists concluded that reducing fossil fuel-related emissions at all air pollution levels could significantly reduce the number of attributable deaths."
Andy Hines, an epidemiologist at the London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine, emphasized: "If fossil fuel use can be replaced by equitable access to clean renewable energy, then ambient air pollution will no longer be a major environmental health risk factor. This study provides new evidence for prompting people to phase out fossil fuels quickly. Phase-out of fossil fuels is a highly effective intervention to improve health and save lives, and is one of the main cost benefits of the United Nations goal of achieving climate neutrality by 2050."
Compiled from /ScitechDaily