After handing over a beautiful fourth quarter and full-year financial report for 2023, ASML Chief Financial Officer Roger Dassen accepted a video interview, in which he mentioned the export of lithography machines to China that everyone is very concerned about. Roger Dassen said that ASML's performance in the Chinese market will be very strong in 2023 for two reasons.
First, most of the lithography equipment delivered to Chinese customers is based on orders in 2022 or even earlier.
In the past few years, the global lithography machine order delivery rate, including the Chinese market, has actually been relatively low, less than 50%. Therefore, when other customers' demand timing changes, ASML is able to deliver the equipment that has been booked to Chinese customers.
Precisely because the delivery volume in China is increasing and other regions are decreasing at the same time, the share of ASML lithography machines in the Chinese market has increased relatively significantly.
Second, the lithography equipment shipped to China is mainly targeted at mature process customers.
Roger Dassen confirmed,The latest export control regulations promulgated by the Netherlands and the United States have taken effect. ASML has further communicated with the government on the scope of application and impact of export controls.
ASML predicts that export controls will affect 10-15% of ASML's sales in the Chinese market in 2024. However, it can still be seen that the demand for mature processes in the end market is still strong. The demand in this part of the market is very stable. It was very stable last year and will continue to be stable in the future.
What can be expected is thatIn 2024, ASML will not receive an export license to ship NXT:2000i and above immersion lithography equipment to China.
at the same time,Individual Chinese advanced chip manufacturing wafer fabs will not be able to obtain export licenses to ship NXT:1970i and NXT:1980i immersion lithography equipment.