After the U.S. stock market closed on January 24, local time, Tesla announced its fourth quarter and full-year financial results for 2023. Tesla’s full-year profit in 2023 is US$96.77 billion, a year-on-year increase of 19%. Among them, revenue in the fourth quarter was US$25.17 billion, lower than the US$25.87 billion previously expected by analysts; net profit was US$7.928 billion, a year-on-year increase of 115%; gross profit margin continued to decline to 17.6%, lower than market expectations of 18.3%.
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Analysts expect Tesla's car sales this year to be around 2.2 million vehicles, an increase of about 20% from 2023. Tesla said it is developing the next generation of cars, and the new models will help refresh Tesla's product line.
According to the results announced by Tesla, in 2023, Tesla's total revenue reached US$96.77 billion, a year-on-year increase of 19%; operating profit margin was 9.2%, a year-on-year decrease of 7.6 percentage points; net profit reached US$15 billion, a year-on-year increase of 19%.
Among them, total revenue in the fourth quarter of 2023 was US$25.17 billion, a year-on-year increase of 3%, lower than the US$25.87 billion previously expected by analysts; net profit was US$7.928 billion, a year-on-year increase of 115%; in the fourth quarter The gross profit margin continued to decline to 17.6%, market expectations were 18.3%, a decrease of 0.3 percentage points from 17.9% in the third quarter of 2023, and a decrease of more than 6.2 percentage points from 23.8% in the same period of 2022. Adjusted earnings per share in the fourth quarter were $0.71, below analysts' expectations of $0.73.
In 2023, Tesla's gross profit margin will continue to decline, and the annual revenue growth will slow down significantly.
Tesla's full-year revenue in 2023 will only grow by 19% year-on-year, which is far lower than the rapid growth of more than 50% in the previous two years, and revenue growth has slowed down significantly. The gross profit margin for 2023 will be 18.2%, a decrease of 7.35 percentage points from 2022. The gross profit margin will continue to decline in the four quarters of 2023, reaching 19.3%, 18.2%, 17.9%, and 17.6% respectively.
The decline in gross profit margin is mainly due to Tesla's continuous price cuts in 2023. In 2023, Tesla's full-year delivery volume reached 1.8086 million vehicles, an increase of 37.65%, an increase of nearly 500,000 vehicles compared with 2022, and just reached the target of 1.8 million vehicles set at the beginning of the year.
Even so, the sales gap between Tesla and BYD has further widened. In 2022, there will be a sales difference of 550,000 vehicles between the two. In 2023, BYD's annual sales will exceed 3 million vehicles, and the gap will widen to 1.21 million vehicles.
Tesla also disclosed its latest results for the fourth quarter of 2023 in its financial report. In the fourth quarter, Tesla released the latest FSDBeta software and also launched the second-generation Optimus robot, which uses Tesla-designed actuators and sensors as well as improved AI functions. Average cost of sales per vehicle fell sequentially to just over $36,000, approaching the natural limit of cost reduction for the existing vehicle range, but the team continues to work on reducing costs.
Tesla expects electric truck production and deliveries to increase significantly in 2024. The reporter learned from Tesla that the Tesla Cybertruck off-road station tour in mainland China will start nationwide at the end of January 2024.
Entering 2024, Tesla's price reduction strategy does not seem to have stalled. On January 12, Tesla China announced that the price of the Model 3 rear-wheel drive refreshed version would be reduced by 15,500 yuan from 259,900 yuan to 245,900 yuan; the price of the Model 3 long-range refreshed version would be reduced by 11,500 yuan to 285,900 yuan. The price of the Model Y rear-wheel drive version has been reduced by 7,500 yuan to 258,900 yuan; the price of the Model Y long-range version has been reduced by 6,500 yuan to 299,900 yuan.
Cinda Securities said that after price cuts in January, many Tesla models have dropped to historically low prices, which is expected to further reduce consumer wait-and-see sentiment before the Spring Festival, driving further increases in monthly deliveries.
It is worth noting that Tesla’s stock price has fallen by more than 16% since 2024.
Goldman Sachs analysts believe that the main unfavorable factors facing Tesla include the possibility of a larger than expected drop in vehicle prices, intensified competition in electric vehicles, and delays in products/features such as FSD/third-generation platforms. Therefore, while the company has long-term growth potential, it faces significant short-term risks.
But except for Goldman Sachs, which maintains a "neutral" rating,
Tesla stated in its financial report that the company is currently between two major growth waves: the first growth wave begins with the global expansion of the Model 3/Y platform, and the next growth wave will be triggered by the global expansion of the next-generation vehicle platform. Tesla emphasized in its financial report that Tesla's vehicle (production/delivery/shipments) growth rate in 2024 may be significantly lower than in 2023, and the team is launching the next generation of cars at the Texas Super Factory.
By 2024, Tesla's energy storage business and revenue growth will exceed that of its automotive business. On December 22, 2023, Tesla and the Shanghai Lingang New Area Management Committee held a land transfer signing ceremony for the Tesla Shanghai Energy Storage Gigafactory project, announcing the official launch of this milestone project. As Tesla's first energy storage super factory project outside the United States, the factory is scheduled to be put into production in 2024. The initial plan is to produce 10,000 commercial energy storage batteries per year, with an energy storage scale of nearly 40GWh.