Abstract:
On Wednesday, Elon Musk posted on social platforms that he would be happy to hire Jensen Huang, the former CEO of Nvidia who just resigned. Reports have previously revealed that Nvidia has exposed another extramarital affair scandal involving Jen-Hsun Huang. Before Thursday's incident, the probability of betting on Huang Renxun's resignation or removal was soaring in major prediction markets. Now that the relevant bets have been settled, traders have begun betting on Nvidia's potential successor and Huang's personal follow-up.
NVIDIA has a market capitalization of US$4.2 trillion. NVDA’s stock price fell sharply again in early trading on Thursday, dragging down the overall market weakness. Nvidia shares fell nearly 7% after the market closed on Wednesday after it was revealed that Huang admitted to having an extramarital affair with a former data center executive.
Nvidia founder Jensen Huang resigned as president, CEO and director on Thursday. Newly revealed allegations revealed that he had an extramarital relationship with Kimberly Powell, vice president of Nvidia's healthcare business.
The board of directors has previously launched an internal investigation into the extramarital affair admitted by Huang Jen-Hsun himself. At the same time, it is reported that Congress will issue a subpoena to Jen-Hsun Huang.
As news of Jen-Hsun Huang's imminent dismissal spread, SpaceX CEO Elon Musk said that he was willing to cooperate with his old business partner.
Musk publicly supports Huang Jen-Hsun
An account on the X platform posted: "Elon, please hire Jen-Hsun Huang." Musk replied: "That would be my honor."
Musk and Huang Renxun have a close personal relationship. SpaceX and Tesla have both chosen Nvidia as their exclusive chip supplier for their AI and data center businesses.
While technology executives and commentators were discussing Nvidia’s future, Musk publicly expressed his support for Huang on the Internet.
Gavin Baker, chief investment officer of Atreides Management, an investment institution, expressed his opinion: After all investigations are completed, Nvidia should hold a shareholder vote on the removal of Huang Renxun.
Baker wrote: "With reports that the board was preparing to remove him, and the stock price falling 8% after hours after the news came out, it is difficult to say that this matter is in the interests of shareholders."
Musk replied: "That's right." In another tweet, Musk agreed that the board of directors should wait for the results of the investigation before deciding whether to remove Huang Jensen. These remarks by Musk were made before Huang Renxun’s official resignation announcement.
Polymarket and Kalshi: Betting on the future of Jen-Hsun Huang and Nvidia
This scandal detonated major prediction markets, with traders opening various betting contracts on Huang Renxun's career fate, personal marriage status, and Nvidia's prospects.
Before Huang Renxun’s resignation, traders on the Polymarket platform believed that the probability of Huang Renxun announcing his resignation or being dismissed before
the end of the year was 77%
. After news of the second extramarital affair came to light, the probability rose to 91% on Wednesday night; while it was only 16% in early trading on Wednesday. As early as November 8, after Huang admitted his first extramarital affair, the market probability had reached 50%.Market contracts show that by 2027-03-31, Huang Renxun’s probability of resignation will be 81%; by 2027-12-31, the probability will rise to 84%.
Kalshi platform contract: There is a 59% chance that Huang will leave Nvidia before November 18; a 52% chance that he will withdraw from the board of directors before January 1, 2027.
Polymarket data: There is a 52% chance that Jensen Huang will resign/be removed from Nvidia's board of directors before the end of the year.
With Huang Renxun officially resigning, all the above contracts have been settled.
Traders are also betting on Huang Jen-Hsun’s personal life: On Polymarket, Huang Jen-Hsun has a 14% chance of divorce before the end of the year; a 4% chance of being arrested before the end of the year.
In addition, combined with Musk’s “hiring intention” on Wednesday, the prediction market began to place bets on Huang Renxun’s next company. Polymarket: Huang Renxun has a 10% probability of joining a new company within the year; of which, the probability of joining SpaceX is 6%, and the probability of joining Anthropic or OpenAI is 4% each. Kalshi traders are betting that Huang has a combined 9% chance of taking a job at SpaceX, xAI or AMD this year.
Kalshi also bets: There is a 77% chance that Huang will be summoned to attend a hearing by Congress before July 2027.
Prediction markets also place bets on the next CEO. Colette Kress, who has now served as interim CEO, ranks first in betting probability on both Polymarket and Kalshi platforms; Ian Buck, general manager of hyperscale's high-performance computing department, is also a popular candidate. This batch of contracts has also been fully settled.
Traders are now beginning to predict Nvidia’s total market value at the end of 2026. In early trading on Polymarket on Thursday, the probability of Nvidia's market value falling below US$4 trillion rose to 52%; at the beginning of this month, the market bet that the probability of the market value falling to US$5-5.5 trillion was still 38%, and now it has dropped to only 8%.
NVIDIA stock price plummets
NVDA fell 14% at the open on Thursday, hitting its lowest opening level since July 2025. The decline then narrowed to within 6%, putting it on track for a sixth consecutive weekly decline.
Compared with the year's high of $243.37 in early October, Nvidia's stock price has retraced approximately 29%; so far this year, it has fallen nearly 13%.
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