A new study provides evidence that former US President Donald Trump's norm-violating rhetoric may polarize democratic attitudes. His supporters may become less supportive of inclusion and political equality, while his opponents may become more supportive of the rule of law. The study, published in the Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences (PNAS), highlights the complex relationship between elite political discourse and support for democratic principles.

The United States has recently seen an increase in political leaders using rhetoric that challenges democratic norms. Such rhetoric often calls into question the fairness of elections, the credibility of the media, and the integrity of democratic institutions. The researchers were motivated by the need to understand the consequences of such rhetoric from political leaders.

"Over the past decade, many political leaders like Donald Trump have begun to use rhetoric that violates some of America's most basic political norms," ​​said study author Matthew E. K. Hall, director of the university's Rooney Center for the Study of American Democracy. Notre Dame de Paris. "During the same period, there have been numerous signs that the American public's support for democracy has been wavering. Many observers believe these patterns are related, but there is no scientific evidence to support this claim."

For their study, the researchers collected data from 804 participants, who constituted a representative sample of the U.S. population. Half of the participants were Republicans who supported Trump and the other half were Democrats who did not support Trump. To ensure data quality, robots and low-effort respondents were screened out. The study was conducted between June 22 and July 7, 2022, and was approved by the University of Notre Dame Institutional Review Board.

Each participant received 20 of Trump's tweets. Participants were randomly assigned to one of four experimental conditions: electoral norm violation, general norm violation, electoral placebo (tweets supporting a candidate), or non-election placebo (tweets mentioning non-election topics, such as responding to a hurricane).

Examples of Trump's norm-violating tweets:

Violation of election norms: "2020 will be the most inaccurate and fraudulent election in history due to universal mail-in voting (not absentee voting, which is fine). It will be a great disgrace to America. Postponing the election until people can vote properly and safely???"

General code violation: "Enemy of the people. Sadly, our LamestreamMedia is completely corrupt!"

After reading the tweets, participants were asked to rate their support for democracy versus dictatorship and to express their views on four democratic principles: inclusion, competition, rule of law, and political equality.

The study found no significant effects on support for democracy versus dictatorship in all experimental conditions compared with a non-election placebo. However, the researchers found that exposure to Trump's electoral norm violations and general norm violations reduced support for democratic inclusion among individuals who supported Trump.

In other words, Trump supporters who were exposed to Trump's norm-violating tweets were less likely to disagree with statements such as "Everyone should be allowed to vote" and "The more people involved in politics and elections, the better." Trump’s widespread norm violations also reduce support for political equality among Trump supporters (e.g., “Government should never treat members of one religion differently than members of any other religion”).

The findings suggest that "the rhetoric used by our political leaders carries profound weight. Violations of standard norms of political conduct undermine support for the most basic democratic principles," Hall told PsyPost.

On the other hand, among those who disapproved of Trump, exposure to tweets that violated election norms, general norms, and even election placebo tweets produced an almost significant increase in support for the rule of law. This effect is primarily driven by the provision that the President shall not be above the law.

"I was surprised to find that exposure to Donald Trump's norm-violating rhetoric actually increased support among Donald Trump's opponents for limiting the president's power," Hall said.

The new findings build on a study published in 2021 that found that exposure to Trump's norm-violating tweets reduced trust in voting and increased his supporters' belief that the election was "rigged."

But while this study sheds light on the impact of norm-violating speech, it does not explore the long-term consequences or broader social impacts of such speech. Future research could delve more deeply into the mechanisms by which political speech shapes public opinion and investigate the persistence of these effects over time.

“It’s important to note that Donald Trump’s rhetoric only affects his supporters’ support for democratic principles,” Hall noted.

The study, "Norm-violating speech undermines support for participatory inclusion and political equality among Trump supporters," was authored by Matthew E. K. Hall and James N. Druckman.