The Nobel Peace Prize will be announced on Friday, and Norway is bracing for the fallout after the results are announced. Previously, U.S. President Donald Trump and his team had continuously put pressure on the Nordic country to award the award to Trump himself. The pressure has continued to increase recently.
With Israel reaching a ceasefire with Hamas and a potential peace deal expected to move forward, Trump has taken more aggressive action to win the award, including publicly declaring that he "deserves it" and directly pressuring Norwegian officials. At the same time, however, the Norwegian Nobel Committee, the decision-making body responsible for the selection, has suggested that such pressure is not effective.
On Thursday night, Trump’s son Eric posted a post on social platform At almost the same time, the White House’s official X account posted a photo of Trump and called him the “Peaceful President.”
This move by the Trump team has put Oslo, the capital of Norway, into an embarrassing spotlight. Media and observers worry that Norway could face diplomatic and economic knock-on consequences if the five-member independent Nobel Committee refuses to award the prize to Trump. However, Jorgen Watne Frydnes, chairman of the Norwegian Nobel Committee, recently made a statement to the local media. Although it was not directly confirmed, it came close to implying that Trump is unlikely to win the prize this year at least. This is consistent with past cases: pressure on the committee is often counterproductive.
Frydnes told Norwegian tabloid VG that the winner of this year's Nobel Peace Prize had been decided on Monday. He also told Norwegian public broadcaster NRK that a possible peace deal in the Middle East would only have an impact on next year's awards selection. Norwegian Foreign Minister Espen Barth Eide has also reiterated many times that the Norwegian government will not interfere in the selection process of the Nobel Peace Prize.
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Meanwhile, Trump is currently the "favorite candidate" in the eyes of bookmakers, according to odds statistics website Oddschecker. They were followed by the Sudanese Emergency Response Room, a volunteer aid network working in war-torn Sudan, and Yulia Navalnaya, the widow of the late Russian opposition leader Alexey Navalny. However, past cases show that betting companies’ predictions often deviate greatly from the final results.
Nominations for the 2025 Nobel Peace Prize closed on January 31, shortly after Trump returned to the White House. It is worth mentioning that former US President Barack Obama created a famous case in 2009 - he won the Nobel Peace Prize just a few months after taking office.
Norway is currently negotiating a trade deal with the United States, hoping to push the United States to reduce its 15% tariff on Norwegian goods exported to the United States. Norwegian Trade Minister Cecilie Myrseth has traveled to Washington, D.C., this week to hold consultations with U.S. officials.
Another concern for Norway comes from its $2 trillion sovereign wealth fund - the world's largest. About 40% of the fund's investments are concentrated in the U.S. market, and there are concerns that Trump may "target" the fund.